CAJ | 학술논문

基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型，采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国17个双边贸易之间的关系。研究表明：供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响，供给因素对我国与美、澳、马、巴、新、秦、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性，结构变化对我国与德、印、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性，汇率对中国对15个贸易伙伴国出口与进口的影响存在严重的不对称性。采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误。经济增长模式对双边贸易有重要影响，人民币升值对我国双边贸易不平衡有一定的矫正作用，对改善我国双边贸易不平衡的国别分布有较大的积极作用。
기우고필공급인소、결구변화적출구결정모형，채용량방정방법화단방정방법연구료외국GDP、중국GDP、결구변화、회솔여아국17개쌍변무역지간적관계。연구표명：공급인소、결구변화대아국쌍변무역유중요영향，공급인소대아국여미、오、마、파、신、진、가진구급출구적영향존재엄중적불대칭성，결구변화대아국여덕、인、가진구급출구적영향존재엄중적불대칭성，회솔대중국대15개무역화반국출구여진구적영향존재엄중적불대칭성。채용출구제진구표시무역수지주법적단방정방법적연구존재엄중착오。경제증장모식대쌍변무역유중요영향，인민폐승치대아국쌍변무역불평형유일정적교정작용，대개선아국쌍변무역불평형적국별분포유교대적적겁작용。
Based on export models with supply factor and structural change, by single equation method and two-equation method, this paper researches the re- lationships between foreign GDP, China＇ s GDP, structural change, RMB＇ s ex- change rate and China＇ bilateral trade. The study shows. Supply factor and structural change has important effect on China＇ s bilateral trade. Supply factor has very asymmetric effect on China＇ s export to US, Australia, Malaysia, Bra- zil, Singapore, Thailand, Canada and import from these countries. Structural change has very asymmetric effect on China＇ s export to Germany, India, Cana- da and import from these countries. RMB＇ s exchange rate has very asymmetric effect on China＇ s fifteen bilateral trade partners. There are serious errors in re- search by single equation method, in which trade balance is represented as ex- port divided by import. Economic growth pattern has important effect on China＇ s bilateral trade. RMB/$ exchange rate appreciation has limit correction effect on imbalanced China＇ s bilateral trade and bigger effect on improving the distri- bution of imbalanced China＇ s bilateral trade among countries.