CAJ | 학술논문

基于当前中国消费者具有不确定性预期和因缺乏成熟金融市场而存在着借贷约束等两大基本特征事实，本文通过构造一个缓冲存货模型，论证指出当本国的经济增长率小于一个特定的，临界值时，居民储蓄率将与本国经济增长率呈正比例变动，而本国的外汇储备也会不断积累。这不仅解释了中国的“高储蓄之谜”，也解释了其不断积累的外汇储备，从而为自20世纪90年代以来中国经济的内外部失衡提供了一个微观解释基础。据本文推测，在其他条件保持不变的情况下，如果中国经济继续保持7％的增长率，则外汇储备将有可能在2015年突破5万亿美元。据此，本文给出了相应的政策建议。
기우당전중국소비자구유불학정성예기화인결핍성숙금융시장이존재착차대약속등량대기본특정사실，본문통과구조일개완충존화모형，론증지출당본국적경제증장솔소우일개특정적，림계치시，거민저축솔장여본국경제증장솔정정비례변동，이본국적외회저비야회불단적루。저불부해석료중국적“고저축지미”，야해석료기불단적루적외회저비，종이위자20세기90년대이래중국경제적내외부실형제공료일개미관해석기출。거본문추측，재기타조건보지불변적정황하，여과중국경제계속보지7％적증장솔，칙외회저비장유가능재2015년돌파5만억미원。거차，본문급출료상응적정책건의。
In this paper, based on two economic stylized facts in China that agents have uncertainty expectation about their expenditure in the future and the financial market in China is not well developed, we construct a buffer stock mod- el and find that, if the growth rate of a country is under some critical value, consumers＇ saving rate in the country will be proportional to its economy growth rate, and its foreign reserves will accumulate as well. As these results can be used to explain China＇ s ＂high saving rate puzzle＂ and why its foreign reserves keep accumulating, this paper gives a microeconomic explanation to Chi- na＇ s economic imbalance. We profess that if the economic growth rate in China keeps 7% in the next period, and everything else being equal, the foreign re- serves will be possible to exceed 500 million dollars in 2015. Based on these findings, the paper also puts forward some policy recommendations accordingly.