经济研究
經濟研究
경제연구
Economic Research Journal
2012年
10期
134~149
,共null页
老年生活自理能力 老年家庭照料 需求和成本 模拟预测 生育政策
老年生活自理能力 老年傢庭照料 需求和成本 模擬預測 生育政策
노년생활자리능력 노년가정조료 수구화성본 모의예측 생육정책
Elderly Ability of Daily Living; Elderly Care; Care Needs and Costs; Projections; Fertility Policy
本文的老年家庭照料需求成本预测模型及调查数据分析表明，我国21世纪上半叶生活自理能力残障老人增速明显高于整体老年人口，高龄残障老人增长大大快于中低龄者，身边无子女残障老人增长明显快于有子女者，残障老人家庭照料成本总额占GDP百分比增速很快。模拟预测对比分析表明，在现行生育政策不变方案下，我国2030年与2050年平均每位劳动者负担的老年家庭照料现金支出分别至少等于2000年的3．0—4．1倍与6．8—12．6倍，比普遍允许二孩与提倡适当晚育方案高很多。本文建议尽快启动二孩晚育软着陆。本文还对死亡率和老年生活自理能力状态转换概率的可能变化对老年照料需求成本的影响进行了分析。
本文的老年傢庭照料需求成本預測模型及調查數據分析錶明，我國21世紀上半葉生活自理能力殘障老人增速明顯高于整體老年人口，高齡殘障老人增長大大快于中低齡者，身邊無子女殘障老人增長明顯快于有子女者，殘障老人傢庭照料成本總額佔GDP百分比增速很快。模擬預測對比分析錶明，在現行生育政策不變方案下，我國2030年與2050年平均每位勞動者負擔的老年傢庭照料現金支齣分彆至少等于2000年的3．0—4．1倍與6．8—12．6倍，比普遍允許二孩與提倡適噹晚育方案高很多。本文建議儘快啟動二孩晚育軟著陸。本文還對死亡率和老年生活自理能力狀態轉換概率的可能變化對老年照料需求成本的影響進行瞭分析。
본문적노년가정조료수구성본예측모형급조사수거분석표명，아국21세기상반협생활자리능력잔장노인증속명현고우정체노년인구，고령잔장노인증장대대쾌우중저령자，신변무자녀잔장노인증장명현쾌우유자녀자，잔장노인가정조료성본총액점GDP백분비증속흔쾌。모의예측대비분석표명，재현행생육정책불변방안하，아국2030년여2050년평균매위노동자부담적노년가정조료현금지출분별지소등우2000년적3．0—4．1배여6．8—12．6배，비보편윤허이해여제창괄당만육방안고흔다。본문건의진쾌계동이해만육연착륙。본문환대사망솔화노년생활자리능력상태전환개솔적가능변화대노년조료수구성본적영향진행료분석。
The analyses presented in this article are based on our newly developed model for projecting the home-based care needs and costs for elderly and the recent survey data. The results show that in the first half of this century, the numbers of ability of daily living （ADL） disabled elderly will increase more rapidly than that of the total elders; disabled oldest-old will increase much faster than that of young-old; disabled elderly without children will increase more rapidly than those living with children; and the annual growth rate of the percent of GDP devoted to home-based care costs for disabled elders rises substantially faster than that of the annual growth rate of the total number of disabled elderly persons. Based on the policy scenarios, our comparative analysis show that, under the scenario of retaining current mainly-one-child fertility policy unchanged, the average burden of home-based care costs for disabled elders per labor （persons aged 18--64） in 2030 would be at least 3.0--4. 1 times as large as that in 2000, and the 2050 average burden per labor would be at least 6. 8-- 12.6 times as large as that in 2000, much higher than that under the two-child with late childbearing policy scenario. Thus, we propose China to start the soft-landing of the two-child with late childbearing policy as soon as possible. We also discuss the effects of possible changes in mortality and the trends in probabilities of the elderly ADL status transitions on elderly home-based care needs and costs in the future in China.
