CAJ | 학술논문

利用吉林省1985--2010年人均冰雪旅游收入和人均GDP时间序列分别作为衡量冰雪旅游和区域经济增长的指标，对吉林省冰雪旅游与经济增长的关系进行协整分析，并用Granger因果检验，确定两者之间作用方向，在此基础上建立误差修正模型，讨论两者间作用力度。结果表明：吉林省冰雪旅游与区域经济增长存在着协整关系，区域经济增长是冰雪旅游的Granger原因。长期内，冰雪旅游收入每变动1％，经济增长将同向变动0．5097％。从误差修正模型可以得出，短期内冰雪旅游与经济增长之间互相作用力度不大，其中经济增长对冰雪旅游调整作用强于后者对前者的作用力度。
이용길림성1985--2010년인균빙설여유수입화인균GDP시간서렬분별작위형량빙설여유화구역경제증장적지표，대길림성빙설여유여경제증장적관계진행협정분석，병용Granger인과검험，학정량자지간작용방향，재차기출상건립오차수정모형，토론량자간작용력도。결과표명：길림성빙설여유여구역경제증장존재착협정관계，구역경제증장시빙설여유적Granger원인。장기내，빙설여유수입매변동1％，경제증장장동향변동0．5097％。종오차수정모형가이득출，단기내빙설여유여경제증장지간호상작용력도불대，기중경제증장대빙설여유조정작용강우후자대전자적작용력도。
Using the time series of per capita ice-snow tourism income and per capita GDP from 1985 to 2010 in Jilin Province as the index to measure the ice-snow tourism development and the economic growth in this region, the relationship between the ice-snow tourism and economic growth was analyzed with the method of cointegration and tested by the Granger causality to identify the reaction direction between the ice-snow and economic growth. And the reaction degree was discussed by the construction of ECM. The results show that the cointegration relation exists between the ice-snow tourism and regional economic growth in Jinlin Province, and the regional economic growth is the Granger causality of ice-snow tourism. For a long period, the variation of 1% in the ice-snow tourism income results in the change of 0. 509 7% in GDP in the same direction. In a short period, the reaction degree be- tween the ice-snow and the economic growth is not high through the analysis of ECM. The degree of economic growth to ice-snow development is higher than the degree of the latter to the former.