CAJ | 학술논문

随着欧债危机愈演愈烈，过度依赖欧美市场的中国正在加紧对新兴市场的开拓步伐。为了提高中国出口商品在新兴市场的国际竞争力，本文通过测度出口商品技术复杂度指标，首先计算了SJTCRev．3至5位码下2600多种制成品的技术含量，在此基础上将所有制成品按技术含量从低到高排列后分成五类，然后计算了中国与11个崛起中的新兴经济体国家在每类产品上的出口份额，构建各新兴经济体的出口技术结构。通过比较中国与新兴经济体国家出口技术结构，考察中国与新兴经济体国家之间贸易的竞争域、贸易的发展空间、贸易的发展潜力，以及这种相互间的贸易替代域与贸易发展空间的动态变化。分析结果表明：入世以来，中国制成品出口技术结构继续升级，但是升级速度落后于印度；中国与印度、越南相比，低技术含量制成品的优势已经不明显，与俄罗斯、新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、巴西和墨西哥相比，中国在高技术和中偏高技术制成品上处于劣势。在这种后追前堵的趋势下，中国有落入“中等收入陷阱”的风险，据此提出了优化中国与各新兴经济体国家之间出口技术结构和跨越“中等收入陷阱”的政策建议。
수착구채위궤유연유렬，과도의뢰구미시장적중국정재가긴대신흥시장적개탁보벌。위료제고중국출구상품재신흥시장적국제경쟁력，본문통과측도출구상품기술복잡도지표，수선계산료SJTCRev．3지5위마하2600다충제성품적기술함량，재차기출상장소유제성품안기술함량종저도고배렬후분성오류，연후계산료중국여11개굴기중적신흥경제체국가재매류산품상적출구빈액，구건각신흥경제체적출구기술결구。통과비교중국여신흥경제체국가출구기술결구，고찰중국여신흥경제체국가지간무역적경쟁역、무역적발전공간、무역적발전잠력，이급저충상호간적무역체대역여무역발전공간적동태변화。분석결과표명：입세이래，중국제성품출구기술결구계속승급，단시승급속도락후우인도；중국여인도、월남상비，저기술함량제성품적우세이경불명현，여아라사、신가파、한국、마래서아、파서화묵서가상비，중국재고기술화중편고기술제성품상처우열세。재저충후추전도적추세하，중국유락입“중등수입함정”적풍험，거차제출료우화중국여각신흥경제체국가지간출구기술결구화과월“중등수입함정”적정책건의。
Along with the increasingly fierce European debt crisis, China which has excessive reliance on European and American markets is stepping up to emerging markets, especially in developing countries markets. In order to improve the international competitiveness of China＇s export products in emerging markets, this paper calculates SITC Rev3 to 5 digital 2600 kinds of manufactured goods technical complexity through the measure of export commodities technical complexity index. Based on manufactured goods technical complexity, each kind of manufactured goods is arranged and classified from small to large according to its technical complexity. Finally, export share of China and 11 emerging economies in every category of products is calculated, construct of export technical structure of each economy. The paper analyzes trade competition domain, trade development space and potential as well as dynamic change of the mutual trade alternative domain and mutual trade development space between China and emerging economies. Results show that： since China＇s entry into WTO, technical structure of manufactured goods export has been updated, but the speed lagged behind India. India is a potential competitor. Compared with India and Vietnam, China doesn ＇t have an advantage over low technical manufactured goods. Compared with Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico, China is in a disadvantage position over high technical and above-average technical manufactured goods. Under this circumstances, China has a risk of falling into middle-income trap. Accordingly, the authors put forward policy suggestions of optimizing technical structure of export between China and each emerging economies and stepoing over middle-income trap.