CAJ | 학술논문

推迟退休年龄、延迟领取养老金年龄的主要影响群体是在职职工，本文使用广东省21个地市对在职职工的问卷调查数据，探索该政策能否可行的经验证据。结果显示，男职工选择在55岁之前退休的占55％，女职工选择在50岁之前退休的占41．2％，表明在职职工存在明显的提前退休倾向，推迟退休并不符合在职职工预期。0rdinal Logistic回归表明参加养老金制度年数对男女职工预期退休年龄的影响均显著为负，表明参加养老金制度越久，预期退休年龄越早；Binary Logistic回归也证实参加养老金制度年数越久，提前退休可能性越大。实证结果说明基本养老保险制度不能激励职工推迟退休、延迟领取养老金。为此，本文提出了对应的四点改革建议。
추지퇴휴년령、연지령취양로금년령적주요영향군체시재직직공，본문사용광동성21개지시대재직직공적문권조사수거，탐색해정책능부가행적경험증거。결과현시，남직공선택재55세지전퇴휴적점55％，녀직공선택재50세지전퇴휴적점41．2％，표명재직직공존재명현적제전퇴휴경향，추지퇴휴병불부합재직직공예기。0rdinal Logistic회귀표명삼가양로금제도년수대남녀직공예기퇴휴년령적영향균현저위부，표명삼가양로금제도월구，예기퇴휴년령월조；Binary Logistic회귀야증실삼가양로금제도년수월구，제전퇴휴가능성월대。실증결과설명기본양로보험제도불능격려직공추지퇴휴、연지령취양로금。위차，본문제출료대응적사점개혁건의。
Since the mainly affected group of deferring retirement age and postponing the earliest age for pension benefit is the on-job workers, this article uses survey data from 21 cities in GuangDong province to investigate the planned retirement age of workers. The results show that 55% of male workers will choose to retire before 55, 41.2% of female workers will choose to retire before 50, which demonstrate an early retirement tendency. After controlling the effect of other factors, the results of Ordinal Logistic model demonstrate that participation years of pension program have a significantly negative effect on planned retirement age of the workers. The results of binary logistic model also confirm that participation years have a significantly negative effect on the dummy variable of early retirement. These empirical evidences indicate that deferring retirement age doesn＇t match the expectation of on-job workers and current old-age insurance system also can＇t encourage workers to postpone the earliest age of pension benefit. At last, this article puts forward a series of policy suggestions.