CAJ | 학술논문

本文将规模效应引入韩忠亮（2011）的成本转嫁模型，利用一个贸易小国的局部均衡模型分析表明：存量外部性效应使得成本转嫁带来的贸易损失发生质变，而演化为“国际贸易悲剧”；给定损失扩张率和转嫁率，“国际贸易悲剧”发生的时点可以确定；规模效应可以在更低的转嫁率水平下实现给定的出口和就业扩张目标，因而减弱了出口扩张目标与福利损失之间的共生性，有助于延缓“国际贸易悲剧”的发生。本文最后指出，通过培育规模效应、降低经济损失存量的扩张倍率和成本转嫁率水平可以减轻贸易损失，但是只有不断提升要素禀赋结构，才能从根本上避免“国际贸易悲剧”现象的发生。
본문장규모효응인입한충량（2011）적성본전가모형，이용일개무역소국적국부균형모형분석표명：존량외부성효응사득성본전가대래적무역손실발생질변，이연화위“국제무역비극”；급정손실확장솔화전가솔，“국제무역비극”발생적시점가이학정；규모효응가이재경저적전가솔수평하실현급정적출구화취업확장목표，인이감약료출구확장목표여복리손실지간적공생성，유조우연완“국제무역비극”적발생。본문최후지출，통과배육규모효응、강저경제손실존량적확장배솔화성본전가솔수평가이감경무역손실，단시지유불단제승요소품부결구，재능종근본상피면“국제무역비극”현상적발생。
In this paper we introduce the element of the scale effect into the cost-shifting model proposed by Han （2011） . The corresponding modeling analysis towards the partial equilibrium of small countries in the international market demonstrates that the stock external effect leads to the qualitative change of loss of trade produced by cost shifting, which evolves into the occurrence of the ＂tragedy of international trade＂. Given a certain loss-expansion ratio and cost-shifting ratio, we can determine the time point with occurrence of the ＂trag- edy of international trade＂. Furthermore, the existence of the scale effect achieves the fulfillment of the export and employment expansion given a lower level of cost shifting, which significantly weakens the symbiosis between the ex- port expansion and the loss of welfare and postpones the formation of the ＂trag- edy of international trade＂. In the end, we propose that developing countries should try to cultivate their scale effects, reduce the expansion ratio of the loss of their economic stock and the cost-shifting ratio in order to alleviate the loss of trade. Especially, the fundamental policy to avoid the occurrence of the ＂tragedy of international trade＂ is to continuously enhance the level of their factor endowments.