CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了一个综合描述全球经济、能源、环境的多区域CGE模型（GAGE模型），定量分析多区域减排政策的碳泄漏情况，以及碳关税对碳泄漏的影响。研究结果表明：美国参与减排可显著降低碳泄漏；碳关税对碳泄漏有减缓作用，但只有当实施的区域足够大时才有显著影响；采用指标“有效减排量”比“碳泄漏率”能更有效地评估减排行动；碳关税并不能改善减排行动的成效，而是进行贸易保护的借口或进行国际气候谈判的筹码。
본문건립료일개종합묘술전구경제、능원、배경적다구역CGE모형（GAGE모형），정량분석다구역감배정책적탄설루정황，이급탄관세대탄설루적영향。연구결과표명：미국삼여감배가현저강저탄설루；탄관세대탄설루유감완작용，단지유당실시적구역족구대시재유현저영향；채용지표“유효감배량”비“탄설루솔”능경유효지평고감배행동；탄관세병불능개선감배행동적성효，이시진행무역보호적차구혹진행국제기후담판적주마。
This paper developes a global multi-regional economy-energy-envi- ronment CGE model （GAGE）, which is employed to analyze carbon leakage of the multi-regional emission reduction policies and impacts of carbon tariffs on carbon leakage quantitatively. The results show that, the participation in emission reduc- tion of US can significantly reduce the carbon leakage rate; the implementation of carbon tariffs can indeed mitigate carbon leakage, which can be significantly ef{ee- tive only when carbon tariffs are implemented on the much enough regions; the in- dicator effective emission reduction can be used to assess mitigation actions more ef- fectively than carbon leakage rate~ carbon tariffs cannot improve the effectiveness of mitigation actions, but only become an excuse for trade protection or a bargain- ing chip in international climate negotiations.