CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，国家频繁调整出口退税率来限制“两高一资”产品的出口。文章在回顾国家1994年以来对钢铁产品出口退税率的调整变化的基础上．运用计量经济学模型，采用月度数据分析了2003—2010年期间出口退税率的调整对钢铁产品出口的影响。研究显示，出口退税率对钢铁产品出口影响的长、短期系数均不显著；国外需求因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用最为突出，无论在长期或短期影响都非常显著；汇率和价格因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用次之，只存在长期均衡关系。
근년래，국가빈번조정출구퇴세솔래한제“량고일자”산품적출구。문장재회고국가1994년이래대강철산품출구퇴세솔적조정변화적기출상．운용계량경제학모형，채용월도수거분석료2003—2010년기간출구퇴세솔적조정대강철산품출구적영향。연구현시，출구퇴세솔대강철산품출구영향적장、단기계수균불현저；국외수구인소대강철출구적자격작용최위돌출，무론재장기혹단기영향도비상현저；회솔화개격인소대강철출구적자격작용차지，지존재장기균형관계。
In recent years, the government has adjusted the export rebate rate to restrict the export of heavy energy consumption, heavy pollution and resource-related products. Based on reviewing the adjustment of export rebate rate on China＇s steel industry since 1994, this paper evaluates the effect of the policy on China＇s steel export by using an econometrical model and the monthly data from 2003 to 2010. The results show that： both the long-term and short-term relations between the export rebate rate and steel export in China are statistically insignificant; the factor of foreign demand has the biggest positive stimulus on steel export in both the long-term and the short-term; the factor of exchange rate and price only has a long-term stimulus effect on steel export.