CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究共同冲击（Common Shocks）对于广东省出口的影响，在重力方程中引入共同因子设定，用于反映共同冲击对广东向不同地区出口的异质性影响。实证结果表明，存在两个影响广东省出口的共同冲击，分别是一体化趋势因子和贸易潜力因子，前者反映了全球一体化的影响，后者反映了国际贸易多元化的影响。文中详细分析了它们对广东省出口的影响和特征，并对其形成原因和“冲击作用”做了经济学解释。进一步分析表明，考虑共同冲击的影响可以更好地解释贸易波动，并且提高了重力方程的预测能力。
본문연구공동충격（Common Shocks）대우광동성출구적영향，재중력방정중인입공동인자설정，용우반영공동충격대엄동향불동지구출구적이질성영향。실증결과표명，존재량개영향광동성출구적공동충격，분별시일체화추세인자화무역잠력인자，전자반영료전구일체화적영향，후자반영료국제무역다원화적영향。문중상세분석료타문대광동성출구적영향화특정，병대기형성원인화“충격작용”주료경제학해석。진일보분석표명，고필공동충격적영향가이경호지해석무역파동，병차제고료중력방정적예측능력。
This paper studies the effects on Guangdong province exports of common shocks by introducing common factors into gravity model, which is used to reflect the heterogeous influences of common shocks on Guangdong＇ s exports to different partners. We find that there exists two common factors in Guangdong＇ s exports, which are integration trend factor and trade potential factor, reflecting respectively the effects of global integration and international trade diversification. We analyze two factors＇ s influences on Guandong＇ s exports and their characteristics, and also their economic implications. Further analysis indicates that common factors proves helpful both in explaining trade variation and in improving the forecast ability of gravity equation.