工业工程
工業工程
공업공정
Industrial Engineering Journal
2012年
5期
105~111
,共null页
供应链 不确定性 风险分担 期权价格
供應鏈 不確定性 風險分擔 期權價格
공응련 불학정성 풍험분담 기권개격
supply chain ; uncertainty ; risk allocation ; option price
供应链期权契约是应对市场需求不确定性的一种重要途径,然而期权价格又给供应链带来了新的风险。针对供应链期权契约的风险分担问题,提出了根据谈判能力协商确定期权价格从而达到风险分担的方法。在市场不确定条件下,以单个制造商和单个零售商组成的供应链为研究对象,建立了基于谈判能力的供应链期权契约风险分担模型,分析了谈判能力对供应链订购量、生产安排以及期望收益的影响。研究发现,期权契约可以提高供应链各成员的期望收益,随着制造商谈判能力的增强,零售商的订单数量增加,期权数量减少,制造商的谈判能力降低了供应链的总期望收益。通过数值仿真分析,进一步验证了通过谈判分担期权契约风险的有效性,获得了对制定供应链期权价格具有指导意义的研究结论。
供應鏈期權契約是應對市場需求不確定性的一種重要途徑,然而期權價格又給供應鏈帶來瞭新的風險。針對供應鏈期權契約的風險分擔問題,提齣瞭根據談判能力協商確定期權價格從而達到風險分擔的方法。在市場不確定條件下,以單箇製造商和單箇零售商組成的供應鏈為研究對象,建立瞭基于談判能力的供應鏈期權契約風險分擔模型,分析瞭談判能力對供應鏈訂購量、生產安排以及期望收益的影響。研究髮現,期權契約可以提高供應鏈各成員的期望收益,隨著製造商談判能力的增彊,零售商的訂單數量增加,期權數量減少,製造商的談判能力降低瞭供應鏈的總期望收益。通過數值倣真分析,進一步驗證瞭通過談判分擔期權契約風險的有效性,穫得瞭對製定供應鏈期權價格具有指導意義的研究結論。
공응련기권계약시응대시장수구불학정성적일충중요도경,연이기권개격우급공응련대래료신적풍험。침대공응련기권계약적풍험분담문제,제출료근거담판능력협상학정기권개격종이체도풍험분담적방법。재시장불학정조건하,이단개제조상화단개령수상조성적공응련위연구대상,건립료기우담판능력적공응련기권계약풍험분담모형,분석료담판능력대공응련정구량、생산안배이급기망수익적영향。연구발현,기권계약가이제고공응련각성원적기망수익,수착제조상담판능력적증강,령수상적정단수량증가,기권수량감소,제조상적담판능력강저료공응련적총기망수익。통과수치방진분석,진일보험증료통과담판분담기권계약풍험적유효성,획득료대제정공응련기권개격구유지도의의적연구결론。
Supply chain option contract is one of the important ways to respond to demand uncertainty. However, such a contract brings new risks into a supply chain. While dealing with the problem of risk sha- ring in supply chain option contract, decision makers are advised to determine option price and share risks by bargaining power. In this paper, the risk sharing by using option contract is studied for a supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. With the effect of bargaining power on order quantity, pro- duction scheduling, and profit being considered, a risk sharing model is proposed. Based on the model, a- nalysis shows that, by option contract, it can increase the expected profit for both the manufacturer and re- tailer. When the manufacturer's bargaining power is increased, the retailer's order quantity increases, but option quantity decreases. When the manufacturer's bargaining power is decreased, the total expected prof- it in supply chain is reduced. Simulation experiments verify the obtained results. Based on the results, suggestions are made for decision making of option price.