CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用“格点”自助法、未知断点的结构检验和动态因子模型分析法对1994—2011年期间中国总体CPI及其八大类构成成分的通胀持续性问题进行了系统分析。研究结果表明无论从总体水平还是从分解水平来看．中国的通胀持续性都具有较高的水平。基于滚动回归分析的2000年前后通胀持续性估计结果表明中国的通胀持续性确实经历了一个缓慢下降的过程。因子模型分析还发现中国分解水平通胀的高持续性主要由总供求决定的宏观经济波动公共因子所主导。
본문이용“격점”자조법、미지단점적결구검험화동태인자모형분석법대1994—2011년기간중국총체CPI급기팔대류구성성분적통창지속성문제진행료계통분석。연구결과표명무론종총체수평환시종분해수평래간．중국적통창지속성도구유교고적수평。기우곤동회귀분석적2000년전후통창지속성고계결과표명중국적통창지속성학실경력료일개완만하강적과정。인자모형분석환발현중국분해수평통창적고지속성주요유총공구결정적굉관경제파동공공인자소주도。
This paper analyzes the Chinese inflation persistence by using data of aggregate CPI and disaggregates CPI components in the period of 1994 -2011. It employs the grid bootstrap unbiased estimator, unknown structure break test and dynamic factor model to indicate the properties of inflation persistence, The main finding is that the inflation persistence is very high at both aggregate and disaggregates level and it has gone through a downward process from 2000. Factor model analysis finds the high level of Chinese disaggregate CPI components stems mainly from the high persistence of common components.