CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了一个包含异质家户、企业、金融借贷机构、中央银行等多经济主体的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，并选取相关参数，利用Matlab软件对中国经济进行模拟。我们发现：在我国存在资产的财富效应；房地产需求对推高房价有一定作用，但会产生诸如消费低迷、产出下降等不良后果；通胀冲击对于整体经济破坏性较大，且持续时间较长；财政冲击对企业的影响要大于对家户的影响；在中国影响房地产价格最重要的因素是通货膨胀率和利率；从长期看，制度创新、技术进步等因素对于稳健的经济发展有重要作用。
본문건립료일개포함이질가호、기업、금융차대궤구、중앙은행등다경제주체적동태수궤일반균형（DSGE）모형，병선취상관삼수，이용Matlab연건대중국경제진행모의。아문발현：재아국존재자산적재부효응；방지산수구대추고방개유일정작용，단회산생제여소비저미、산출하강등불량후과；통창충격대우정체경제파배성교대，차지속시간교장；재정충격대기업적영향요대우대가호적영향；재중국영향방지산개격최중요적인소시통화팽창솔화리솔；종장기간，제도창신、기술진보등인소대우은건적경제발전유중요작용。
This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a representative household and an enterprise, financial lending institutions, the central bank and other heterogeneous agents. By selecting relevant parameters and using Matlab simulation, we find out China＇ s existing wealth effects; the needs for real estate push up the price of real estate, and will lead to a low consumption and output as well as other adverse consequences ; inflation shock for overall economic damage is bigger, and will persist long; fiscal shock impacts enterprise greater than that of household ; the price of real estate in China is the most important factor to inflation and interest rates. In the long run, we should pay attention to system innovation and technology progress because such factors will still play important roles on economic development in the future.