CAJ | 학술논문

根据相关贸易统计数据可知，中国大陆已经成为日本和韩国最大的出口市场，日本和韩国对中国大陆市场的依赖不断增强。通过运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应与方差分解进行分析发现，虽然日本和韩国是中国大陆在亚洲的两个重要贸易伙伴，但是中国大陆对日本和韩国出口的依赖性不断下降。中国大陆对韩国出口贸易行为只受中国大陆对日本和中国香港出口贸易行为的影响，并且这种贸易依赖关系是单向的；同时中国大陆从日本和韩国的当期进口贸易行为只受中国大陆从中国香港进口贸易行为的影响，它并不依赖于中国大陆从日本和韩国的前期进口贸易行为。
근거상관무역통계수거가지，중국대륙이경성위일본화한국최대적출구시장，일본화한국대중국대륙시장적의뢰불단증강。통과운용향량자회귀모형、맥충향응여방차분해진행분석발현，수연일본화한국시중국대륙재아주적량개중요무역화반，단시중국대륙대일본화한국출구적의뢰성불단하강。중국대륙대한국출구무역행위지수중국대륙대일본화중국향항출구무역행위적영향，병차저충무역의뢰관계시단향적；동시중국대륙종일본화한국적당기진구무역행위지수중국대륙종중국향항진구무역행위적영향，타병불의뢰우중국대륙종일본화한국적전기진구무역행위。
Through the analysis of the data from Ministry of Commerce of the P. R. C and the United Nations International Trade Statistics,we found that China has become the largest international market for Japan and South Korea, Japan and South Korea＇s international trade dependence on Chinese market is growing much stronger. However, using the vector autoregressive model, impulse response and variance decomposition,we＇ ve found that, although Japan and South Korea were one of the biggest trading partners in Asia for China,Chinese foreign trade dependences on these two export markets continued to decline recently. And while China＇ s export to South Korea is affected only by China＇ s exports to Japan and to Hong Kong,and this dependency is just one - way and irreversible. In the meantime, China＇ s current imports from Japan and South Korea can only be impacted by its import from Hong Kong,which does not rely on its early imports from Japan and South Korea.