经济评论
經濟評論
경제평론
Economic Review
2012年
6期
142~148
,共null页
经济波动 福利成本 狭义 广义 Lucas论断
經濟波動 福利成本 狹義 廣義 Lucas論斷
경제파동 복리성본 협의 엄의 Lucas론단
Economic Fluctuations ; Welfare Costs ; Broad sense ; Narrow sense ; Lucas thesis
平抑经济波动是否具有潜在的福利效应？对此问题的回答关系到经济周期理论研究的深入推进和反周期政策存在必要性的进一步探讨。本文从Lucas基准模型出发，依据是否遵循Lucas基准模型的分析框架，将继Lucas（1987）之后的经济波动福利成本研究划分为狭义经济波动福利成本研究和广义经济波动福利成本研究两大阵营。前者主要是指通过修正Lucas基准模型或采用替代性的消费数据来检验Lucas论断的研究；后者是指考虑了不完全资本市场与消费者异质性等现实经济特征，或是引入了波动与增长的内生性、小概率灾难性事件和主观福祉概念等创新性思想来深化和发展Lucas基准模型的研究。从研究思路和测算方法两个维度对两类文献进行梳理后，我们发现未来的研究可以从引入消费者劳动一闲暇选择、考虑财富代际间转移的可能性，以及合理假定随机消费流生成过程等方面深入展开。
平抑經濟波動是否具有潛在的福利效應？對此問題的迴答關繫到經濟週期理論研究的深入推進和反週期政策存在必要性的進一步探討。本文從Lucas基準模型齣髮，依據是否遵循Lucas基準模型的分析框架，將繼Lucas（1987）之後的經濟波動福利成本研究劃分為狹義經濟波動福利成本研究和廣義經濟波動福利成本研究兩大陣營。前者主要是指通過脩正Lucas基準模型或採用替代性的消費數據來檢驗Lucas論斷的研究；後者是指攷慮瞭不完全資本市場與消費者異質性等現實經濟特徵，或是引入瞭波動與增長的內生性、小概率災難性事件和主觀福祉概唸等創新性思想來深化和髮展Lucas基準模型的研究。從研究思路和測算方法兩箇維度對兩類文獻進行梳理後，我們髮現未來的研究可以從引入消費者勞動一閒暇選擇、攷慮財富代際間轉移的可能性，以及閤理假定隨機消費流生成過程等方麵深入展開。
평억경제파동시부구유잠재적복리효응？대차문제적회답관계도경제주기이론연구적심입추진화반주기정책존재필요성적진일보탐토。본문종Lucas기준모형출발，의거시부준순Lucas기준모형적분석광가，장계Lucas（1987）지후적경제파동복리성본연구화분위협의경제파동복리성본연구화엄의경제파동복리성본연구량대진영。전자주요시지통과수정Lucas기준모형혹채용체대성적소비수거래검험Lucas론단적연구；후자시지고필료불완전자본시장여소비자이질성등현실경제특정，혹시인입료파동여증장적내생성、소개솔재난성사건화주관복지개념등창신성사상래심화화발전Lucas기준모형적연구。종연구사로화측산방법량개유도대량류문헌진행소리후，아문발현미래적연구가이종인입소비자노동일한가선택、고필재부대제간전이적가능성，이급합리가정수궤소비류생성과정등방면심입전개。
Does it have potential welfare effect to stabilize economic fluctuations？ The answer to this question relates to the promotion of the economic cycles research, as well as whether it is necessary to implement counter - cyclical policies. According to the Lueas baseline model, we divide the researches of the welfare costs of the economic fluctuation into the broad sense and the narrow sense two camps. The former refers to the studies which are conducted by amending Lucas baseline model or using alternative consumption data to test Lucas assertion,and the latter refers to the studies which consider the reality of the economic characteristics of incomplete capital markets and consumer heterogeneity, or introduce some innovative ideas, such as endogenous nature of the fluctuations and growth, small probability of crash states, and the loss of subjective well - being to develop the Lucas baseline model. After combing the two camps of the related literatures from the perspective of research approach and measuring methods, we find that future studies should go further by introducing consumers＇ labor - leisure choice, possibility of the intergenerational transfer of wealth, and the reasonable assumption of the generating process of random consumption stream reasonably.
