中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2012年
11期
51~59
,共null页
西部山地灾害多发区 粮食 虚拟人口容量 迁移区划 陕南
西部山地災害多髮區 糧食 虛擬人口容量 遷移區劃 陝南
서부산지재해다발구 양식 허의인구용량 천이구화 협남
disaster-prone mountain regions in western China; grain; virtual population carrying capacity; zoning for potential migration; southern Shaanxi Province
以可持续发展理论和承载力理论为基础。从耕地粮食视角出发。构建人口容量测评模型，在对陕南粮食产量分析的基础上，对陕南28县区人口容量进行评估、预测，在此基础上将陕南28区县划分为五种人口迁移功能区。结果表明：①1990-2010年，陕南粮食总产量、人均粮食产量均呈现波动下降趋势。且人均粮食产量的下降趋势较粮食总产量的下降趋势更为显著；②温饱状态下，陕南各区县2007-2010年人口容量相对较大，粮食消费压力相对较小；小康状态下，陕南各区县2007-201（1年人口容量相对较小，粮食消费压力相对较大；③2015年，陕南各区县人口盈余／赤字规模位于-6．25-9．81万人之间，整体处于一般超载一轻微盈余状态。人口承载压力相对较小；2020年，陕南各区县人口盈余／赤字规模位于-9．34-9．73万人之间，整体盈余人口规模缩小，赤字人口规模扩大，人口承载压力上升；④丹凤县、西乡县和山阳县属Ⅰ类迁出区；宁强县、城固县、旬阳县属Ⅱ类迁出区；略阳县、南郑县等九个县区属Ⅲ类稳定区：汉滨区、商州区等六个县区属Ⅰ类迁入区；勉县、镇巴县等七个区县属Ⅱ类迁入区。
以可持續髮展理論和承載力理論為基礎。從耕地糧食視角齣髮。構建人口容量測評模型，在對陝南糧食產量分析的基礎上，對陝南28縣區人口容量進行評估、預測，在此基礎上將陝南28區縣劃分為五種人口遷移功能區。結果錶明：①1990-2010年，陝南糧食總產量、人均糧食產量均呈現波動下降趨勢。且人均糧食產量的下降趨勢較糧食總產量的下降趨勢更為顯著；②溫飽狀態下，陝南各區縣2007-2010年人口容量相對較大，糧食消費壓力相對較小；小康狀態下，陝南各區縣2007-201（1年人口容量相對較小，糧食消費壓力相對較大；③2015年，陝南各區縣人口盈餘／赤字規模位于-6．25-9．81萬人之間，整體處于一般超載一輕微盈餘狀態。人口承載壓力相對較小；2020年，陝南各區縣人口盈餘／赤字規模位于-9．34-9．73萬人之間，整體盈餘人口規模縮小，赤字人口規模擴大，人口承載壓力上升；④丹鳳縣、西鄉縣和山暘縣屬Ⅰ類遷齣區；寧彊縣、城固縣、旬暘縣屬Ⅱ類遷齣區；略暘縣、南鄭縣等九箇縣區屬Ⅲ類穩定區：漢濱區、商州區等六箇縣區屬Ⅰ類遷入區；勉縣、鎮巴縣等七箇區縣屬Ⅱ類遷入區。
이가지속발전이론화승재력이론위기출。종경지양식시각출발。구건인구용량측평모형，재대협남양식산량분석적기출상，대협남28현구인구용량진행평고、예측，재차기출상장협남28구현화분위오충인구천이공능구。결과표명：①1990-2010년，협남양식총산량、인균양식산량균정현파동하강추세。차인균양식산량적하강추세교양식총산량적하강추세경위현저；②온포상태하，협남각구현2007-2010년인구용량상대교대，양식소비압력상대교소；소강상태하，협남각구현2007-201（1년인구용량상대교소，양식소비압력상대교대；③2015년，협남각구현인구영여／적자규모위우-6．25-9．81만인지간，정체처우일반초재일경미영여상태。인구승재압력상대교소；2020년，협남각구현인구영여／적자규모위우-9．34-9．73만인지간，정체영여인구규모축소，적자인구규모확대，인구승재압력상승；④단봉현、서향현화산양현속Ⅰ류천출구；저강현、성고현、순양현속Ⅱ류천출구；략양현、남정현등구개현구속Ⅲ류은정구：한빈구、상주구등륙개현구속Ⅰ류천입구；면현、진파현등칠개구현속Ⅱ류천입구。
By using sustainability and carrying capacity theories, this paper introduces an evaluation model for computing population carrying capacity in light of regional arable land productivity. Based on analysis of grain yields in southern Shaanxi Province of China, assessment and forecast have been made on population carrying capacities for 28 counties in southern Shaanxi, which are accordingly divided into five potential zones for migration. It is shown that ： （ 1 ） Total and per capita grain yields have a trend of fluctuating decline between 1990 and 2010, and the downward trend for per capita grain yield is more significant than the total grain yield. （2） While it is relatively large with low pressure for food consumption for each county in southern Shaanxi at the living standard of “just enough food and clothing” between 2007 and 2010, population carrying capacity is relatively small with large pressure for food consumption for each county at the standard of “a moderately better-off life”. （ 3 ） As population surplus/deficit remains between - 6. 25 and 9. 81 （million）, with an overall status of “moderate surplus and slight deficit”, for each county in southern Shaanxi in 2015, pressure from population is relatively low. In 2020 when population surplus/deficit becomes between - 9.34 and 9.73 （million） , with an overall shrinking of surplus and enlarging deficit, pressure from population becomes even larger. （ 4 ） Danfeng, Xixiang and Shanyang are counties belonging to Zone Class Ⅰ for out-migration ; Ningqiang, Chenggu and Xunyang are counties belonging to Zone Class Ⅱ for outmigration, Lueyang, Nanzheng and the other 7 counties belong to Zone Class Ⅲ for stability, Hanbin, Shangzhou and the other 4 counties, however, belong to Zone Class I for inmigration, and Mian, Zhenba and the other 5 counties belong to Zone Class Ⅱ for inmigration.
