CAJ | 학술논문

借鉴自然灾害链的相关理论，首先研究了社会性突发事件链相关构成主体，并将其划分为隐性链和显性链两个阶段，然后在此基础上分析了社会性突发事件的反应机理；通过构建社会性突发事件发生模型，提出了在事前预测、提高系统阈值、断链祛险、削弱负能量值等宏观层面防范社会性突发事件的阻断机制，以期为未来政府进一步应对社会性突发事件提供理论参考。
차감자연재해련적상관이론，수선연구료사회성돌발사건련상관구성주체，병장기화분위은성련화현성련량개계단，연후재차기출상분석료사회성돌발사건적반응궤리；통과구건사회성돌발사건발생모형，제출료재사전예측、제고계통역치、단련거험、삭약부능량치등굉관층면방범사회성돌발사건적조단궤제，이기위미래정부진일보응대사회성돌발사건제공이론삼고。
Based on the related theory of natural disaster chain, the author studies the related subjects consisting of social unex- pected event chain at first, classifies the chain into such two periods as implicit chain and explicit chain, based on this, analyzes the reaction mechanism of social unexpected events, and puts forward the interdiction mechanism for preventing social unexpected events from macro-level such as forecast before the events, the increase of systematic threshold value, interrupting the chain to a- void the risk, weakening negative energy value and so on through constructing social unexpected event incidence model, in order to provide theoretical reference for governments to further respond social unexpected events.