CAJ | 학술논문

文章从人口结构变化的角度，以长三角区域为考察对象，揭示了人口在年龄、文化、城乡、产业、失业、职业和性别等方面的结构变化演变特征及其对经济增长的作用机理，并利用1978-2010年面板数据探讨了长三角区域经济增长的人口结构变化因素。研究发现，一是从总体上看，人口结构演变与经济结构调整相对应，人口年龄结构、城乡结构、文化结构和产业结构变化对长三角区域经济增长产生了促进作用，人口职业结构变化则起到了阻碍作用；二是人口结构变化对不同省市经济增长的影响方向和影响大小存在差异；三是随着人口过快增长对生产力的压迫大大减轻，人口的结构性问题开始成为制约长三角区域经济和社会发展的重大现实问题，决策部门应予以高度重视。在解决人口问题时，政府应根据不同地区的经济发展程度实施有差别的调控政策。
문장종인구결구변화적각도，이장삼각구역위고찰대상，게시료인구재년령、문화、성향、산업、실업、직업화성별등방면적결구변화연변특정급기대경제증장적작용궤리，병이용1978-2010년면판수거탐토료장삼각구역경제증장적인구결구변화인소。연구발현，일시종총체상간，인구결구연변여경제결구조정상대응，인구년령결구、성향결구、문화결구화산업결구변화대장삼각구역경제증장산생료촉진작용，인구직업결구변화칙기도료조애작용；이시인구결구변화대불동성시경제증장적영향방향화영향대소존재차이；삼시수착인구과쾌증장대생산력적압박대대감경，인구적결구성문제개시성위제약장삼각구역경제화사회발전적중대현실문제，결책부문응여이고도중시。재해결인구문제시，정부응근거불동지구적경제발전정도실시유차별적조공정책。
From the angle of the changes in population structure, this paper sets Yangtze River Delta as the target area and analyzes the evolution characters of population structure in terms of age,culture,urbanrural duali ty, industry, unemployment, occupation and sex, and their effects on econom ic growth. Then it uses the panel data from 1978 to 2010 to discuss the pop ulation structure factors which give rise to Yangtze River Delta＇s economic growth. It draws the following conclusions： firstly, on the whole, the chan ges in population structure correspond to the adjustment to economic struc ture, and the changes in population age, urbanrural dual, cultural and indus trial structures help support Yangtze River Delta＇s economic growth, while the changes in population occupational structure hold back Yangtze River Delta＇s economic growthl secondly, with regard to different provinces and cities, the effects of the changes in population structure on regional economic growth differ thirdly, as some down pressure of the excessive population growth on productivity has been greatly eased, the population structure has been a big real problem that restricts the economic and social development on Yangtze River Delta, which should attract enough attention from the decisionmaking sectors. When solving the population problem,governments should implement differentiated control policies in accordance with regional economic development.