CAJ | 학술논문

以农户意愿为研究切入点,运用Logistic模型对农户未来几年是否扩大桃树生产规模的影响因素进行定量分析,结果将为河北省相类似地区桃产业发展相关技术和政策制定提供科学的决策依据。模型分析结果表明：桃的市场价格、生产资料价格决定了农户桃树种植的收益和成本,是影响农户种植意愿的主要因素。而种植过程的对技术的需求和资金支持则是农户能否达到意愿的关键。因此,桃产品的市场价格、生产成本及对技术和资金的需求是影响其种植意愿的重要因素,而家庭劳动力人数和市场建设情况是能否扩大规模的主要限制因素。因此,政府相关部门应应采取相应措施,加强技术支、政策支持及相应市场建设和完善,促进桃产业可持续发展。
이농호의원위연구절입점,운용Logistic모형대농호미래궤년시부확대도수생산규모적영향인소진행정량분석,결과장위하북성상유사지구도산업발전상관기술화정책제정제공과학적결책의거。모형분석결과표명：도적시장개격、생산자료개격결정료농호도수충식적수익화성본,시영향농호충식의원적주요인소。이충식과정적대기술적수구화자금지지칙시농호능부체도의원적관건。인차,도산품적시장개격、생산성본급대기술화자금적수구시영향기충식의원적중요인소,이가정노동력인수화시장건설정황시능부확대규모적주요한제인소。인차,정부상관부문응응채취상응조시,가강기술지、정책지지급상응시장건설화완선,촉진도산업가지속발전。
Based on the production of Peach tree in Hebei Province,the influence factors of the expanding of plant scale was analyzied using the Logistic model from the farmers’perspective.The results showed that the price of peach and the productive are the most important factors to influence the farmers’opinion to extend the plant scale.The need for technology and financial support are the key factors because most of the farmers want to improve the quality of peach and to get high profit.And the labors and the construction of local market are the limitation factors for the sustainable of peach production.Relevant departments should take corresponding measures to strengthen the technical support,policy support and the local market construction to promote the peach sustainable development.