科技促进发展
科技促進髮展
과기촉진발전
Science & Technology for Development
2012年
9期
31~37
,共null页
杨晓光 张嘉为 张珣 赵琳
楊曉光 張嘉為 張珣 趙琳
양효광 장가위 장순 조림
外贸 出口 进口 增速 预测
外貿 齣口 進口 增速 預測
외무 출구 진구 증속 예측
foreign trade, exports, imports, growth rate, forecasting
2011年下半年以来,在内需、外需均持续低迷等不利因素的影响下,我国进出口增速持续放缓、2012年前8个月,我国进出口增速大幅下滑,国有企业和集体企业的进出口出现负增长,对欧盟、日本的双边贸易额负增长、长期来看,人口红利、制度红利逐渐衰竭;产业转移、贸易摩擦、经济结构调整等因素共同作用使得2012年成为我国对外贸易的一个转折点,我国进出口增速将从高速增长阶段转变进行相对低速增长的阶段短期内,我国贸易面临外需和内需双重乏力的压力,我国进出口增速下滑势头仍将持续、预计2012年进出口增速在64%左右,出口增速7.3%左右,进口额增速在5.5%左右.
2011年下半年以來,在內需、外需均持續低迷等不利因素的影響下,我國進齣口增速持續放緩、2012年前8箇月,我國進齣口增速大幅下滑,國有企業和集體企業的進齣口齣現負增長,對歐盟、日本的雙邊貿易額負增長、長期來看,人口紅利、製度紅利逐漸衰竭;產業轉移、貿易摩抆、經濟結構調整等因素共同作用使得2012年成為我國對外貿易的一箇轉摺點,我國進齣口增速將從高速增長階段轉變進行相對低速增長的階段短期內,我國貿易麵臨外需和內需雙重乏力的壓力,我國進齣口增速下滑勢頭仍將持續、預計2012年進齣口增速在64%左右,齣口增速7.3%左右,進口額增速在5.5%左右.
2011년하반년이래,재내수、외수균지속저미등불리인소적영향하,아국진출구증속지속방완、2012년전8개월,아국진출구증속대폭하활,국유기업화집체기업적진출구출현부증장,대구맹、일본적쌍변무역액부증장、장기래간,인구홍리、제도홍리축점쇠갈;산업전이、무역마찰、경제결구조정등인소공동작용사득2012년성위아국대외무역적일개전절점,아국진출구증속장종고속증장계단전변진행상대저속증장적계단단기내,아국무역면림외수화내수쌍중핍력적압력,아국진출구증속하활세두잉장지속、예계2012년진출구증속재64%좌우,출구증속7.3%좌우,진구액증속재5.5%좌우.
From the second half of 2011, the growth rate of China's foreign trade has been going down, under the pres- sure of slack international and domestic demands. For the first eight month in 2012, the growth rate of China's foreign trade declines sharply, the exports and imports of SOEs, and collective enterprises are negative growth, and the bilateral trades between Sino-European Union and Sino-Japan are negative growth. From a relative long view, exhaustion of population profit and regime profit, production retrenchment, trade friction and economic re-structure work together to make 2012 be- come a turning point. China's foreign trade comes into a relatively low speed stage compared with the high speed period in last decade. In a short period, the trend of speed-reduction will continue under the pressure of slack international demand and domestic demand. We predict that the growth rate of 2012's foreign trade is about 6.4%, and exports grow about 7.3 %, imports grow about 5.5%.