亚太经济
亞太經濟
아태경제
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
2012年
6期
27~31
,共null页
中国-东盟自由贸易区 货币合作 最优货币区标准 VAR模型 经济冲击对称性
中國-東盟自由貿易區 貨幣閤作 最優貨幣區標準 VAR模型 經濟遲擊對稱性
중국-동맹자유무역구 화폐합작 최우화폐구표준 VAR모형 경제충격대칭성
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, Monetary cooperation, the Criterias of Optimal CurrencyArea, VAR Model, the Symmetry of Economic Shocks
运用最优货币区理论和VAR模型，从经济冲击对称性的角度，考察了中国与东盟货币合作的经济基础。中国-东盟各国在经济开放度、经济周期同步性、通货膨胀相似性等方面具备货币合作基础。中国、印尼、马来西亚、泰国、菲律宾、新加坡6国的供给冲击对称性较高，货币冲击次之，需求冲击最差。中国-东盟具有深入开展货币合作的经济基础，但未来还需克服政治障碍和外来影响。
運用最優貨幣區理論和VAR模型，從經濟遲擊對稱性的角度，攷察瞭中國與東盟貨幣閤作的經濟基礎。中國-東盟各國在經濟開放度、經濟週期同步性、通貨膨脹相似性等方麵具備貨幣閤作基礎。中國、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國、菲律賓、新加坡6國的供給遲擊對稱性較高，貨幣遲擊次之，需求遲擊最差。中國-東盟具有深入開展貨幣閤作的經濟基礎，但未來還需剋服政治障礙和外來影響。
운용최우화폐구이론화VAR모형，종경제충격대칭성적각도，고찰료중국여동맹화폐합작적경제기출。중국-동맹각국재경제개방도、경제주기동보성、통화팽창상사성등방면구비화폐합작기출。중국、인니、마래서아、태국、비률빈、신가파6국적공급충격대칭성교고，화폐충격차지，수구충격최차。중국-동맹구유심입개전화폐합작적경제기출，단미래환수극복정치장애화외래영향。
This paper applies the theory of optimum currency areas and VAR model, examines the economic foundation of China-ASEAN＇s currency cooperation from the symmetry of economic shocks perspective. The empirical results show that China-ASEAN countries have monetary cooperation foundation in economic open- ness, economic cycle synchronization and in flation similarity. On economic impact, the symmetry of China, In- donesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore 6 countries＇ supply shocks is the best higher, the currency impact less than the supply shocks, and demand impact is the worst. China-ASEAN have economic foundation in developing further currency cooperation, but in the future they also need to overcome a myriad of political ira- pediments and foreign influences.
