CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于FAVAR模型全视角分析了外部冲击对PPI指数的结构性传导，并考察了国内宏观经济政策对外部冲击的抵御效果。结果表明，外部冲击对中国PPI指数影响显著，且伴随着全球化的深入进一步加剧；国际大宗商品价格冲击是首要因素，国际流动性冲击和外需拉动冲击次之；外部冲击效应沿价格链递减明显，对原料、加工和食品类PPI指数影响较大，对其他类PPI指数影响较小。国内宏观经济政策不能有效抵御外部冲击。
본문기우FAVAR모형전시각분석료외부충격대PPI지수적결구성전도，병고찰료국내굉관경제정책대외부충격적저어효과。결과표명，외부충격대중국PPI지수영향현저，차반수착전구화적심입진일보가극；국제대종상품개격충격시수요인소，국제류동성충격화외수랍동충격차지；외부충격효응연개격련체감명현，대원료、가공화식품류PPI지수영향교대，대기타류PPI지수영향교소。국내굉관경제정책불능유효저어외부충격。
This paper analyses the structural conduction of external shocks on PPI index via FAVAR model in comprehensive perspective. The results show that, the impacts of external shocks on China＇s PPI index are significant, and the degree of impacts is exacerbating along with the deepening of globalization; International commodity price shock is the primary factor, followed by international liquidity shock and external demand shock; External shock effects diminish gradually along the price chain, in terms of greater impact on the PPI index of raw materials, pro- cessing goods and foods, and smaller impact on other types of PPI index. Domestic maeroeconomie policy cannot effectively resist external shocks to real economy.