CAJ | 학술논문

作为出口环节的重要的绿色贸易手段，降低和取消部分产品出口退税已成为转变贸易发展方式、促进节能减排一揽子政策措施的重要组成部分。为了解“降低和取消污染性行业产品出口退税”这一贸易政策措施的效果，填补出口退税环境效应量化研究的空白，遵循链式反应评价方法的逻辑，建立了由经贸政策到经济行为，再到环境影响的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，量化评估了“仅对单一污染性行业出口产品降低或取消出口退税”，以及“对全体污染性行业出口产品降低或取消出口退税”的环境经济影响。经验分析结果表明：调减污染产品／产业出口退税虽然使出口量受到一定影响，但能够改善经济系统的环境表现；特别是对全体污染性行业产品同时降低或取消出口退税，可以有效防止“污染泄露”，取得更好的污染减排效果；其经济与环境效应。在短期内主要由规模效应及其引致的结构效应主导。因此，面向环境保护的出口退税政策调整应尽量涵盖所有污染性行业，同时应尽快出台以环境保护为目的的长期性经济政策手段。
작위출구배절적중요적록색무역수단，강저화취소부분산품출구퇴세이성위전변무역발전방식、촉진절능감배일람자정책조시적중요조성부분。위료해“강저화취소오염성행업산품출구퇴세”저일무역정책조시적효과，전보출구퇴세배경효응양화연구적공백，준순련식반응평개방법적라집，건립료유경무정책도경제행위，재도배경영향적가계산일반균형（CGE）모형，양화평고료“부대단일오염성행업출구산품강저혹취소출구퇴세”，이급“대전체오염성행업출구산품강저혹취소출구퇴세”적배경경제영향。경험분석결과표명：조감오염산품／산업출구퇴세수연사출구량수도일정영향，단능구개선경제계통적배경표현；특별시대전체오염성행업산품동시강저혹취소출구퇴세，가이유효방지“오염설로”，취득경호적오염감배효과；기경제여배경효응。재단기내주요유규모효응급기인치적결구효응주도。인차，면향배경보호적출구퇴세정책조정응진량함개소유오염성행업，동시응진쾌출태이배경보호위목적적장기성경제정책수단。
This research follows the chain reaction logic of ＂trade policy-economic behavior-environmental impact＂ to make a quantitative analysis of the environmental and economic impacts of the ＂reduction or elimination of export tax rebates＂ both in one single polluting industry （e. g. , iron and steel） and in all polluting industries. The framework is based on a computable general equilibrium model. The simulations suggest that the reduction or elimination of export tax rebates can to some extent improve the environmental performance of the overall economic system. To be specific, this policy, when exerted on a single polluting industry, cannot imProve the general environmental performance of the economy due to ＂pollution leakage＂ effects caused by production factors flowing to other polluting industries; but when exerted on all the polluting industries, such ＂pollution leakage＂ can indeed be avoided. The study also indicates that the trade policy instruments aimed at environmental protection and improvement are not directly targeted on pollution emission, which will make the optimal allo- cation of resources according to economic rather than environmental optimization. To sum up, to protect the environment effectively, the ＂reduction or elimination of export tax rebates＂ should cover all polluting industries, but such indirect adjustment still could not directly replace the role of policy instruments, such as environmental taxes, for environmental protection.