地域研究与开发
地域研究與開髮
지역연구여개발
Areal Research and Development
2012年
6期
106~110
,共null页
吉中会 李宁 吴吉东 刘雪琴
吉中會 李寧 吳吉東 劉雪琴
길중회 리저 오길동 류설금
洪涝灾害 CART模型 损失评估 预测 湖南省
洪澇災害 CART模型 損失評估 預測 湖南省
홍로재해 CART모형 손실평고 예측 호남성
frost-snow and low-temperature disasters ; characteristics ; periodicity ; cold climate events ; Ming Dynasty; Shanxi Province
选择湖南省14个地级市（州）1995-2009年4—9月降水量、降水量的距平百分率、最高水位值以及对应年份的年末耕地面积、农作物受灾面积、受灾人口、人口密度、产值密度8类指标作为自变量，损失率为因变量，构建指标体系，利用分类与回归树模型逐级提取出了造成洪涝灾害损失的主要因子，依次为农作物受灾面积、受灾人口、7月降水量、6月降水距平百分率、9月降水量以及人口密度。同时确定了影响阈值，当农作物受灾面积不超过56．8×10^3hm^2，且受灾人口少于158．2万人时，预测损失级别为1，属于微灾；而农作物受灾面积超过81．1×10^3hm^2，7月降水量少于343mm，6^月降水距平百分率大于94．5％时，预测损失级别为5，属极重灾。CART模型应用简单、结果客观，为洪涝灾害损失评估及预测开辟了一条新途径。
選擇湖南省14箇地級市（州）1995-2009年4—9月降水量、降水量的距平百分率、最高水位值以及對應年份的年末耕地麵積、農作物受災麵積、受災人口、人口密度、產值密度8類指標作為自變量，損失率為因變量，構建指標體繫，利用分類與迴歸樹模型逐級提取齣瞭造成洪澇災害損失的主要因子，依次為農作物受災麵積、受災人口、7月降水量、6月降水距平百分率、9月降水量以及人口密度。同時確定瞭影響閾值，噹農作物受災麵積不超過56．8×10^3hm^2，且受災人口少于158．2萬人時，預測損失級彆為1，屬于微災；而農作物受災麵積超過81．1×10^3hm^2，7月降水量少于343mm，6^月降水距平百分率大于94．5％時，預測損失級彆為5，屬極重災。CART模型應用簡單、結果客觀，為洪澇災害損失評估及預測開闢瞭一條新途徑。
선택호남성14개지급시（주）1995-2009년4—9월강수량、강수량적거평백분솔、최고수위치이급대응년빈적년말경지면적、농작물수재면적、수재인구、인구밀도、산치밀도8류지표작위자변량，손실솔위인변량，구건지표체계，이용분류여회귀수모형축급제취출료조성홍로재해손실적주요인자，의차위농작물수재면적、수재인구、7월강수량、6월강수거평백분솔、9월강수량이급인구밀도。동시학정료영향역치，당농작물수재면적불초과56．8×10^3hm^2，차수재인구소우158．2만인시，예측손실급별위1，속우미재；이농작물수재면적초과81．1×10^3hm^2，7월강수량소우343mm，6^월강수거평백분솔대우94．5％시，예측손실급별위5，속겁중재。CART모형응용간단、결과객관，위홍로재해손실평고급예측개벽료일조신도경。
Based on collecting, reorganizing and analyzing the history data about Shanxi in Ming Dynasty, this paper studied the grade series, stage changes, different grades＇ periodicity and reason of the frost-snow and low-temperature disasters in Shanxi. The statistical results showed that the disasters had 114 times, the disasters＇ grade may be divided into mild, moderate and severe disaster, and they were respectively 22, 66 and 26 times. The disasters can be divided into two stages. The first stage was from 1368 to 1519, the second stage was from 1520 to 1644. The first stage was that the disasters happen occasionally, and most of them were mild and moderate disas- ters. The second stage was that the disasters happen frequently, and most of them were moderate and the most seri- ous. According to wavelets analysis, it was known that there were mainly 2 -3a period, 9 - 14a period and 45 55a period. There were four cold climate events from 1531 to 1533, from 1578 to 1588, from 1591 to 1607 and from 1631 to 1642. The cold weather events had occurred after 1520 and prescribed the climate of the middle and late Ming Dynasty was colder than that of the early Ming Dynasty.
