CAJ | 학술논문

美国“财政悬崖”问题日益逼近．这是获得连任后奥巴马政府面临的最棘手的问题之一。由于美国两党在财政预算问题上各持立场．达成妥协需要经历艰难的谈判过程。本文在分析美国财政赤字演进历程的基础上，对造成“财政悬崖”的收入、支出两方面进行了细项分解。通过情景模拟分析比较，我们认为．“财政悬崖”将使美国2013年的财政赤字较2012年大幅减少2000亿-2500亿美元．占美国GDP的1．3％-1．6％。这一硬性减赤的出现。可能会使美国经济再度陷入超低速增长。“财政悬崖”会通过贸易、货币、债券市场等渠道给中国经济造成一定的不利影响．有必要妥善应对．
미국“재정현애”문제일익핍근．저시획득련임후오파마정부면림적최극수적문제지일。유우미국량당재재정예산문제상각지립장．체성타협수요경력간난적담판과정。본문재분석미국재정적자연진역정적기출상，대조성“재정현애”적수입、지출량방면진행료세항분해。통과정경모의분석비교，아문인위．“재정현애”장사미국2013년적재정적자교2012년대폭감소2000억-2500억미원．점미국GDP적1．3％-1．6％。저일경성감적적출현。가능회사미국경제재도함입초저속증장。“재정현애”회통과무역、화폐、채권시장등거도급중국경제조성일정적불리영향．유필요타선응대．
The coming U.S. fiscal cliff is one of the thorniest issues facing President Obama who has won re-election. Because each of the two major U.S. political parties holds its own position, to reach a compromise on the budget problem needs to go through a difficult process of negotiations. In this paper, based on the analysis of the evolution of the U. S. budget deficit, we give a detailed decomposition from the perspectives of both income and spending, which have been considered as part of the causes of the fiscal cliff. With the scenario simulation analysis and comparison, we think fiscal cliff will lead to significant （200-250 billion dollars） reduction in U.S. fiscal deficit in 2013 compared with 2012, accounting for 1.3% -1. 6% of the U.S. GDP. The emergence of this rigid deficit reduction may cause the relapse of the U.S. economy back into the ultra-low-speed growth. Fiscal cliff will also bring adverse effects to the Chinese economy through channels such as trade, currency and bond markets, so it is necessary to properly dealing with the uncertainty.