CAJ | 학술논문

近年来．人民币汇率的低估成为美国向中国施压以消除美中贸易逆差的借口。文章选取了人民币实际有效汇率、中美两国的国内收入、货币发行量及利率等变量进行实证分析．并按照SITC分类将中关贸易产品分为资源密集型、劳动密集型和资本密集型三大类．将中国对美国这三种类型产品的净出口与得到的变量主成分进行检验。实证结果表明。除了人民币汇率外，中关贸易收支差额还受中美两国的货币发行量以及汇率政策的显著影响。而且同一变量对不同类型产品的净出口影响不尽一致。人民币升值有助于缓解中关贸易收支的不平衡，但不能从根本上消除这种现象．有必要提高利用外资质量．加快贸易自由化进程。
근년래．인민폐회솔적저고성위미국향중국시압이소제미중무역역차적차구。문장선취료인민폐실제유효회솔、중미량국적국내수입、화폐발행량급리솔등변량진행실증분석．병안조SITC분류장중관무역산품분위자원밀집형、노동밀집형화자본밀집형삼대류．장중국대미국저삼충류형산품적정출구여득도적변량주성분진행검험。실증결과표명。제료인민폐회솔외，중관무역수지차액환수중미량국적화폐발행량이급회솔정책적현저영향。이차동일변량대불동류형산품적정출구영향불진일치。인민폐승치유조우완해중관무역수지적불평형，단불능종근본상소제저충현상．유필요제고이용외자질량．가쾌무역자유화진정。
Recently, U.S. irresponsibly accuses against China＇s manipulating its currency which has led to its trade deficit, and thus puts pressure on the appreciation of RMB. This paper makes an empirical analysis by selecting variables including the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the incomes of China and America, along with the currency circulation and the interest rate. And Sino-US trade products are divided into resource-intensive, labor-intensive and capital-intensive products in accordance with the SITC classification, to test the three types of net exports of China to America and their related variables. The empirical results show that the factors which affect the Sino-US trade difference include not only the exchange rate of RMB, but also the currency circulation and the exchange rate policy, and the same variable affects the net export of different types of products differently. Therefore, it is impossible to eliminate the imbalance of Sino-US trade payments by forcing RMB to appreciate.