CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过构建开放经济条件下的两国模型，分析两国间产出、货币供给和价格变动对两国汇率水平的影响，并运用中关两国2003～2011年的月度数据，通过建立结构性向量自回归模型（SVAR）对两国模型进行检验。结果表明美国物价水平对中美汇率的影响不显著．中国货币供给和美国产出波动的正向冲击导致人民币升值，实证结论与两国模型不一致。在对导致实证研究结论与两国模型不一致的原因进行分析的基础上，作者从转变经济增长方式、调整货币政策等角度提出了相应的政策建议。
문장통과구건개방경제조건하적량국모형，분석량국간산출、화폐공급화개격변동대량국회솔수평적영향，병운용중관량국2003～2011년적월도수거，통과건립결구성향량자회귀모형（SVAR）대량국모형진행검험。결과표명미국물개수평대중미회솔적영향불현저．중국화폐공급화미국산출파동적정향충격도치인민폐승치，실증결론여량국모형불일치。재대도치실증연구결론여량국모형불일치적원인진행분석적기출상，작자종전변경제증장방식、조정화폐정책등각도제출료상응적정책건의。
By constructing a two-country model under the open economy, this paper analyzes the influence of the output, money supply and price change between the two countries on their exchange rates. And through the establishment of a structural vector autoregressive model （SVAR）, it uses the Sino-US monthly data of 2003-2011 to test the two-country model. The result shows that the price level of the United States has no significant effect on Sino-US exchange rate, but the money supply of China and the fluctuation of output of America lead to the appreciation of RMB. This conclusion is contrary to the two-country model. Based on the analysis of the empirical findings, it gives some policy suggestions from such perspectives as transforming economic growth pattern and adjusting monetary policy and so on.