CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据我国1978—2010年的时间序列数据，采用变参数状态空间模型实证分析我国农村流通总量规模、农村集贸市场和流通环境对农村消费的动态影响。研究结果表明，流通业对农村消费的影响有显著的时变性。首先，农村流通总量的单位增长幅度引起的农村消费增长幅度为正向且逐年上升，但是由于我国农村流通业发展缓慢，年平均增长幅度小，使得流通业总量对农村消费增长的贡献率并没有随弹性系数的上升而大幅增加，贡献率在大部分年份中变化不大。其次，农村集贸市场在第一阶段（1978—1995年）对农村消费支出扮演着非常重要的角色；在第二阶段（1996—2010年）随着农民收入的提高和农村流通环境的改善，农村集贸市场对农民消费的影响在逐步减弱。第三，较差的流通环境增加了农民消费的支出成本和降低了消费的预期，对农民消费产生挤出效应；较好的流通环境减少了消费支出的成本和提高了消费的预期，对农民消费产生挤入效应。
본문근거아국1978—2010년적시간서렬수거，채용변삼수상태공간모형실증분석아국농촌류통총량규모、농촌집무시장화류통배경대농촌소비적동태영향。연구결과표명，류통업대농촌소비적영향유현저적시변성。수선，농촌류통총량적단위증장폭도인기적농촌소비증장폭도위정향차축년상승，단시유우아국농촌류통업발전완만，년평균증장폭도소，사득류통업총량대농촌소비증장적공헌솔병몰유수탄성계수적상승이대폭증가，공헌솔재대부분년빈중변화불대。기차，농촌집무시장재제일계단（1978—1995년）대농촌소비지출분연착비상중요적각색；재제이계단（1996—2010년）수착농민수입적제고화농촌류통배경적개선，농촌집무시장대농민소비적영향재축보감약。제삼，교차적류통배경증가료농민소비적지출성본화강저료소비적예기，대농민소비산생제출효응；교호적류통배경감소료소비지출적성본화제고료소비적예기，대농민소비산생제입효응。
Based on time-series data from 1978 to 2010, this paper uses state space model of time- varying parameter to analyze dynamic influence of the total scale, country market and distribution environment of rural distribution on rural consumption. Research shows that elasticity coefficient of distribution industry on rural consumption is remarkably different in different periods. Firstly, unit growth of total rural distribution causes rural consumption growth, and the positive impact is increasing every year. But annual average growth of rural distribution is slow, so contribution ratio of total distribution on rural consumption growth doesn＇t increase significantly as elasticity coefficient rises, contribution ratio shows little change in most years. Secondly, farmers market played a very important role in rural consumer spending from 1978 to 1995~ the influence of farmers market on rural consumption weakened gradually with the increase of farmer＇s income and the improvement of distribution environment from 1996 to 2010. Thirdly, poor distribution environment can increase farmer＇s consumption costs and reduce their consumption expectation, causing crowding-out effect on rural consumption~ better distribution environment can reduce the cost of consumer spending and raise consumer expectation, causing crowding-in effect on rural consumption.