CAJ | 학술논문

随着经济的不断发展，物价波动与房地产价格之间的关系逐渐成为关注的焦点。本文选取我国2006年1月至2010年12月的CPI和房屋销售价格指数月度数据，建立VAR模型。通过格兰杰因果检验发现：房地产价格和物价波动之间存在单向的因果关系。通过脉冲响应函数进行分析，表明房屋销售价格指数对CPI有着正向的作用。方差分解的结果说明在长期CPI的变动很大程度是由房屋销售价格指数引起的，房地产市场价格波动受自身因素的影响较大。
수착경제적불단발전，물개파동여방지산개격지간적관계축점성위관주적초점。본문선취아국2006년1월지2010년12월적CPI화방옥소수개격지수월도수거，건립VAR모형。통과격란걸인과검험발현：방지산개격화물개파동지간존재단향적인과관계。통과맥충향응함수진행분석，표명방옥소수개격지수대CPI유착정향적작용。방차분해적결과설명재장기CPI적변동흔대정도시유방옥소수개격지수인기적，방지산시장개격파동수자신인소적영향교대。
With constant economic development, te relation of price fluctuation and real estate price has gradually become a focus. This paper uses the monthly data of CPI and house sale price index from January, 2006 to December, 2010 to set up VAR model. Through Granger causality Tests, this paper finds out that there exists one - way cause and effect relationship between real estate price and price fluctuation. Through an analysis of impulse response function, this paper proves house sale price index has positive effect on CPI. The outcome of variance decomposition proves that the long - term CPI fluctuation is due to house sale price index to a great extent and the price fluctuation of real estate market is under great influence of its internal factors.