CAJ | 학술논문

采用空间经济计量方法研究空间相关性对耕地保护决策的影响。结果表明：除图斑面积变量外，土地用途、土壤质量、道路可及性、沟渠可及性及县城可及性等变量具有明显的空间自相关，包含空间特征的线性概率模型存在显著的误差空间自相关。由此得出：耕地利用具有空间自相关，制定耕地保护规划时应充分考虑现有地块用途；地块可及性对地块用途有显著影响，耕地保护措施应充分利用地块可及性；耕地保护规划应充分考虑特定地块用途变化的概率，并依据此来划定耕地保护区。
채용공간경제계량방법연구공간상관성대경지보호결책적영향。결과표명：제도반면적변량외，토지용도、토양질량、도로가급성、구거가급성급현성가급성등변량구유명현적공간자상관，포함공간특정적선성개솔모형존재현저적오차공간자상관。유차득출：경지이용구유공간자상관，제정경지보호규화시응충분고필현유지괴용도；지괴가급성대지괴용도유현저영향，경지보호조시응충분이용지괴가급성；경지보호규화응충분고필특정지괴용도변화적개솔，병의거차래화정경지보호구。
This paper studies the influence of spatial correlation on cultivated land preservation deci- sion by using the method of spatial econometrics analysis. The result shows that variables like parcel use, soil quality,approximility to road and ditch and county center are spatial correlated distinctly except parcel area, and SAR model error is also significiently spatial correlated similarly. So it can be concluded that, firstly, government should seriously consider the current parcel＇s use when they make out the culti- vated land preservation plan because of spatial dependance among parcels. Secondly, the parcel＇s use con- version is affected remarkablely by its approximability, so government can control cultivated land loss by using it. Lastly, the probohility of cultivated land conversion should be considered, which can be used to draw up the preservation programme properly.