CAJ | 학술논문

能源利用效率近年来一直是全球关注的焦点．构建能源利用效率均衡解和最优解的理论分析框架，采用1978-2008年的数据进行实证检验，对比分析了2001—2008年我国能源利用效率的均衡解、最优解与实际值的差距，许模拟了2010-2050年能源消费和能源利用效率的发展路径．结果表明：我国能源利用效率的发展具有较强的惯性趋势，其实际值与最优值的差距，主要是由经济发展模式本身所造成的；在当前的发展模式年均8％的经济增长率下和理论计算的最优发展模式下，能源消费高峰达到的年份分别为2040年和2036年，但前者高峰期的能源消费是后者的2．71倍。因此，为达到可持续发展的目的，首要是确立正确的发展模式，其次是制定有效的政治、经济、文化和社会等方面的制度和手段。
능원이용효솔근년래일직시전구관주적초점．구건능원이용효솔균형해화최우해적이론분석광가，채용1978-2008년적수거진행실증검험，대비분석료2001—2008년아국능원이용효솔적균형해、최우해여실제치적차거，허모의료2010-2050년능원소비화능원이용효솔적발전로경．결과표명：아국능원이용효솔적발전구유교강적관성추세，기실제치여최우치적차거，주요시유경제발전모식본신소조성적；재당전적발전모식년균8％적경제증장솔하화이론계산적최우발전모식하，능원소비고봉체도적년빈분별위2040년화2036년，단전자고봉기적능원소비시후자적2．71배。인차，위체도가지속발전적목적，수요시학립정학적발전모식，기차시제정유효적정치、경제、문화화사회등방면적제도화수단。
Energy efficiency is the recent focus of every country. In this paper, based on the model of endogenous growth, equilibrium solution and the optimal theory of energy efficiency were calculated; and the dynamic comparative analysis was carried out on the balanced solution, optimal solution and the actual value of China from 2001 to 2008. The development path of energy consumption and energy efficiency from 2010 to 2050 was forecasted. At last, the optimal development model was formulated through simulation under different scenarios of economic growth. The results showed that there was a strong trend of inertia in the dynamic development of China＇s energy efficiency, and the gap of its actual value and optimal value mainly could be mainly attributed to economic development model. Under the current development model and with the annual 8% economic growth rate, the peak of energy consumption would be reached at 2040, while under the optimal development model, the peak would be reached at 2036, but energy consumption of the former would be 2.71 times as the latter. Therefore, to pursue the sustainable development, the right development model must be estabilished, and following that, efficient political, economic, cultural and social systems need to be built.