CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用政府宏观统计数据,基于投入产出模型测算了上海居民消费产生的间接碳排放,并利用扩展的投入产出模型,使用结构分解分析法分析了居民消费间接碳排放的影响因素。结果表明：1997-2010年,上海市石油加工炼焦及燃烧加工业、金属加工制品、交通运输仓储及信息服务3个部门的碳排放强度、碳排放乘数因子均处于各部门前列,是能源消耗高度密集型部门;上海市居民间接能源消费产生的碳排放总量、城镇居民间接能源消费产生的碳排放呈上升趋势,农村居民间接能源消费产生的碳排放总体呈下降趋势。结构分解结果显示,上海市居民消费水平的提高是居民消费间接碳排放增加的主要驱动力;城镇人口规模的增加也是影响上海城镇居民消费间接碳排放总量增加的重要因素。调整居民消费结构、降低部门碳排放强度是现阶段居民消费碳减排的有效措施。
문장이용정부굉관통계수거,기우투입산출모형측산료상해거민소비산생적간접탄배방,병이용확전적투입산출모형,사용결구분해분석법분석료거민소비간접탄배방적영향인소。결과표명：1997-2010년,상해시석유가공련초급연소가공업、금속가공제품、교통운수창저급신식복무3개부문적탄배방강도、탄배방승수인자균처우각부문전렬,시능원소모고도밀집형부문;상해시거민간접능원소비산생적탄배방총량、성진거민간접능원소비산생적탄배방정상승추세,농촌거민간접능원소비산생적탄배방총체정하강추세。결구분해결과현시,상해시거민소비수평적제고시거민소비간접탄배방증가적주요구동력;성진인구규모적증가야시영향상해성진거민소비간접탄배방총량증가적중요인소。조정거민소비결구、강저부문탄배방강도시현계단거민소비탄감배적유효조시。
Based on the input-output model,this study calculated the indirect carbon emissions of Shanghai’s residents con sumption with the government macroscopic statistic data.In addition influencing factors of carbon emission were analyzed with the improved input-output model and structure decomposition analysis method.The results as follows,first of all,during the years from 1997 to 2010,oil processing coking and burning processing industry carbon emissions intensity and carbon emis sions multiplier factor is the biggest,and they are energy-consumption-intensive sectors.Secondly,carbon emission from residents indirect energy consumption of Shanghai’s whole city and urban area increased year by year,while carbon emission from rural residents indirect energy consumption decreased.Furthermore,the structure decomposition results showed that the main driving force for the increasing of the indirect carbon emission from residents consumption was the improved consumption level.Besides,the rapid urban population growth was also a key factor for the increase of the indirect carbon emission from residents’consumption.It is important to correctly handle contradictions among the development of low-carbon economy and the improvement of level of household consumption and population urbanization.At the present,adjusting residents’con sumption structure and reducing carbon emission intensity are the most effective measures to reduce carbon emission caused by residents’consumption.