CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用HS分类的第72章钢铁产品六分位数据，用“倍差法”分别检验了出口退税政策变动对中国向世界和中国向韩国钢铁出口规模和结构的影响。实证结果表明，2010年7月中国政府取消出口退税政策显著地抑制了相关商品的出口增长：取消出口退税的四大类商品对世界的出口增长率比未取消退税的商品低了54%～98％，对韩国的出口增长率比未取消的其他商品低了30％～69％，为改善钢铁产品出口结构起到了重要的作用。由于一定时期内特定国家的贸易政策、汇率变动等影响需求的因素较为稳定，因此对韩国出口的实证研究结果更能客观地反映政策的实际效果。
본문채용HS분류적제72장강철산품륙분위수거，용“배차법”분별검험료출구퇴세정책변동대중국향세계화중국향한국강철출구규모화결구적영향。실증결과표명，2010년7월중국정부취소출구퇴세정책현저지억제료상관상품적출구증장：취소출구퇴세적사대류상품대세계적출구증장솔비미취소퇴세적상품저료54%～98％，대한국적출구증장솔비미취소적기타상품저료30％～69％，위개선강철산품출구결구기도료중요적작용。유우일정시기내특정국가적무역정책、회솔변동등영향수구적인소교위은정，인차대한국출구적실증연구결과경능객관지반영정책적실제효과。
In this paper, we examine the impact on the amount and structure of China＇s steel export after cancelling tax rebate policy using a new method, ＂difference on difference＂ , and 6-bit export data （Chap.72 under HS classification）. The empirical study shows that the cancelling of tax rebate policy in July 2010 significantly suppressed the export of concerned products. Among the four categories of products, the export growth appears significantly different. The export growth of control group （eliminated tax rebates products） appears 54% to 98% lower than the compared group when we study China＇s world trade, while 30% to 69% lower when we take Sino- ROK trade as an example. Considering the stable influence on the demand of a certain country, such as trade policy, exchange rate and other factors, we think the empirical results of Sino-ROK can reflect the actual effects of tax rebate policy more objectively.