CAJ | 학술논문

赌徒谬误指当某一独立随机事件发生后，人们倾向认为这一结果再次出现的概率降低。如果一连串的随机事件呈现出一定的趋势，人们倾向于认为随机事件将呈现系统性反转。证券市场中的赌徒谬误指在股票上涨（下跌）序列中做出股价将要下跌（上涨）的判断。本研究探讨股票市场特征（趋势长度及方向）及投资者的人格特征（自我效能感）对赌徒谬误的影响。以83名股票投资者为对象，采用多层线性模型进行分析，结果发现：趋势长度主效应显著，短线情境下赌徒谬误频次更高；趋势方向主效应显著，下跌情境下赌徒谬误频次更高；二者交互作用显著，在短线下跌情境下，赌徒谬误频次更高；投资者的自我效能感对股票趋势长度具有调节作用，高自我效能的投资者在短线情境下更容易出现赌徒谬误。
도도류오지당모일독립수궤사건발생후，인문경향인위저일결과재차출현적개솔강저。여과일련천적수궤사건정현출일정적추세，인문경향우인위수궤사건장정현계통성반전。증권시장중적도도류오지재고표상창（하질）서렬중주출고개장요하질（상창）적판단。본연구탐토고표시장특정（추세장도급방향）급투자자적인격특정（자아효능감）대도도류오적영향。이83명고표투자자위대상，채용다층선성모형진행분석，결과발현：추세장도주효응현저，단선정경하도도류오빈차경고；추세방향주효응현저，하질정경하도도류오빈차경고；이자교호작용현저，재단선하질정경하，도도류오빈차경고；투자자적자아효능감대고표추세장도구유조절작용，고자아효능적투자자재단선정경하경용역출현도도류오。
Gambler＇s fallacy is the belief that if deviations from the expected behaviors are observed in repeated independent trials of some random processes, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely~ When people judge the probability of an uncertain event, gambler＇s fallacy often occurs. Stock performance is also uncertain. So gambler＇s fallacy appears in the stock market investment. The purpose of this research is to investigate when the gambler＇s fallacy occurs in stock investment and what affects its frequency. Besides, how the investors＇ personality, especially their self-efficacy （SE）, moderates the relationship between stocks＇ factors and gambler＇s fallacy is also discussed. A total of 83 stock investors in China participated in this research. In order to measure the frequency of gambler＇s fallacy, stocks＇ K-lines with trends （up or down） were used in this study. According to four kinds of trends （short-up, short-down, long-up, long- down）, we chose 10 pictures for each of these trends. Subjects were asked to judge the current trend （up or down） and the future price （ increase or decrease） of each of the stocks. When they suggested that the price wound increase in a down-trend or decrease in an uptrend, gambler＇s fallacy occurred. Besides, Schwarze＇s general self-efficacy scale was used to measure investors＇ self-efficacy （α = . 86）. The hierarchical linear modeling （HLM） was used in data analysis because of the nested strueture, i. e. , the trend duration and direction as the intra-personal variable was nested in self-efficacy （personal variable）. The results indicated that the duration （β = -. 65, t = -2.44, p 〈. 05） and direetion （β = -. 66, t = -3. 424, p 〈. 01 ） of the trend have both main effeet and interaction effect （β= . 80 ,t = 2. 80, p 〈. 01 ）. Specifically, in the down trend, the frequency of gambler＇s fallacy was more in short-trend than in long-trend （β down trend = -. 65 ,t = -2.44, p 〈 . 05 ）, and most likely occurred under short-down condition （F = 10. 05, p 〈 01 ）. Besides, investors with high self-efficacy （one SD above average） showed more fallacies in short-trend than in long-trend （β high SE = -1.10, t = -3. 17, p 〈. 01 ）, while people with low serf-efficacy did not have this difference. It means that serf-efficacy negatively moderated the relationship between trends＇ duration and gambler＇s fallacy. The results indicated that investors＇ speculation and losing aversion made them show more fallacies in short-down trends. Interestingly, serf-efficacy, often had a positive correlation with performance, negatively moderated the relationship between trends＇ durations and gambler＇s fallacy Vancouver et al. found that people with high serf-efficacy often showed overconfident and had more logic errors under uncertain circumstances Therefore, investors, facing with the uncertain stock market, were probably overconfident and made more mistakes in decision making processes. Finally, implications and contributions were discussed.