CAJ | 학술논문

本文对以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式进行了趋势性分析。尽管外部失衡呈现出周期性的调整，但这些调整过程也是围绕着美国的经济和利益中心而展开的。对于美国而言，它并不需要刻意对其逆差大小进行调整，而主要通过金融渠道的资本流动收益为其贸易逆差提供融资；其外部失衡的调整是贸易失衡对象的转换，而不是贸易余额的逆转。对于顺差方，外部失衡的调整意味着贸易条件的恶化和经济结构的调整，出口贸易地位将逐步被弱化和替代。以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式将继续存在，除非美元崩溃和美国经济霸主地位丧失。
본문대이미국위중심적전구경제실형모식진행료추세성분석。진관외부실형정현출주기성적조정，단저사조정과정야시위요착미국적경제화이익중심이전개적。대우미국이언，타병불수요각의대기역차대소진행조정，이주요통과금융거도적자본류동수익위기무역역차제공융자；기외부실형적조정시무역실형대상적전환，이불시무역여액적역전。대우순차방，외부실형적조정의미착무역조건적악화화경제결구적조정，출구무역지위장축보피약화화체대。이미국위중심적전구경제실형모식장계속존재，제비미원붕궤화미국경제패주지위상실。
The paper discussed the trend of global imbalances pattern of U.S. being the center. Despite the periodical adjustments of external imbalance, these adjustments were revolved around U.S. being the economic and benefits center. The trade deficits of U.S. were financed from earnings of capital flow through financial channels. The adjustment of external imbalance with U.S. was varying the trade partners but not reversion of trade balance. For the surplus countries, the adjustments of external imbal ances implied the deterioration of trade terms and the adjustment of economic structure. The export trade position would be weakened and substituted by others. Therefore the global imbalances pattern of U.S. as the center would be persistent, only if the breakdown of U.S. dollar and the loss of U. S. economic hegemony.