CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了一个异质性经济人的生命周期模型以刻画经济个体的动态消费决策，进而采用似然矩方法（Method of Simulated Moment）估计出模型的结构参数。在此基础上，通过反事实模拟考察当前养老金“双轨制”对公务员和城镇企业职工生命周期消费差距的影响。研究结果表明，在考虑了公务员与企业职工不同的收入增速、收入风险以及异质性偏好后，养老金“双轨制”引起的替代率差异能解释公务员与企业职工生命周期中24．3％的消费差距。享有与公务员相同的养老金替代率水平将促使企业职工生命周期的平均消费增加4．84％，并且对于财富水平越低的企业职工，该促进效应越明显。
본문건립료일개이질성경제인적생명주기모형이각화경제개체적동태소비결책，진이채용사연구방법（Method of Simulated Moment）고계출모형적결구삼수。재차기출상，통과반사실모의고찰당전양로금“쌍궤제”대공무원화성진기업직공생명주기소비차거적영향。연구결과표명，재고필료공무원여기업직공불동적수입증속、수입풍험이급이질성편호후，양로금“쌍궤제”인기적체대솔차이능해석공무원여기업직공생명주기중24．3％적소비차거。향유여공무원상동적양로금체대솔수평장촉사기업직공생명주기적평균소비증가4．84％，병차대우재부수평월저적기업직공，해촉진효응월명현。
We build up a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model to characterize the dynamic consumption choice of economic agents. Estimation is then performed by the method of simulated moment to obtain the model parameters. Counterfactual simulation based on estimated parameters indicates that different pension replacement rate faced by public servants and enterprise employees, which is caused by the ＂double-track＂ pension scheme, can account for 24.3% of the life-cycle consumption gap between public servants and enterprise employees. Had the same pension replacement rate as public servants, the life cycle consumption of enterprise employees would raise by 4.84%. Moreover, the less wealth an enterprise employee possesses, the larger stimulating effect of raising replacement rate on consumption he has.