预测
預測
예측
Forecasting
2013年
1期
52~56
,共null页
丁胡送 孙燕红 何平 祁玉青
丁鬍送 孫燕紅 何平 祁玉青
정호송 손연홍 하평 기옥청
供应链协作方式 财务困境 基于多智能体的仿真 (s S)库存策略 VMI
供應鏈協作方式 財務睏境 基于多智能體的倣真 (s S)庫存策略 VMI
공응련협작방식 재무곤경 기우다지능체적방진 (s S)고존책략 VMI
supply chain collaboration; financial distress ; multi-agent simulation; (s,S) inventory strategy; VMI
单个企业财务困境的形成机制已有大量研究,供应链环境下的财务困境形成机制的研究目前还较少。供应链成员企业间因运作的密切联系和利益的相关性,一个成员企业的财务状况不仅取决于其本身的运营,还取决于其上下游企业的运营和财务状态。本文研究简单结构下成员企业间的协作方式对其财务困境形成及传递的影响。对于由供应商、生产商、分销商和零售商组成的四阶段供应链,本文应用多智能体仿真来分析在(s,S)库存策略和VMI协作方式下供应链成员企业财务状态的变动规律。研究发现:供应链成员企业在(s,S)策略方式下比在VMI协作方式下更易发生财务困境。在(s,S)策略方式下,供应链成员企业的财务困境具有双向传递的特性;而在VMI协作方式下,财务困境几乎不具有传递性。论文还通过参数灵敏度分析研究了财务困境发生和传递过程中供应链协作参数的影响。
單箇企業財務睏境的形成機製已有大量研究,供應鏈環境下的財務睏境形成機製的研究目前還較少。供應鏈成員企業間因運作的密切聯繫和利益的相關性,一箇成員企業的財務狀況不僅取決于其本身的運營,還取決于其上下遊企業的運營和財務狀態。本文研究簡單結構下成員企業間的協作方式對其財務睏境形成及傳遞的影響。對于由供應商、生產商、分銷商和零售商組成的四階段供應鏈,本文應用多智能體倣真來分析在(s,S)庫存策略和VMI協作方式下供應鏈成員企業財務狀態的變動規律。研究髮現:供應鏈成員企業在(s,S)策略方式下比在VMI協作方式下更易髮生財務睏境。在(s,S)策略方式下,供應鏈成員企業的財務睏境具有雙嚮傳遞的特性;而在VMI協作方式下,財務睏境幾乎不具有傳遞性。論文還通過參數靈敏度分析研究瞭財務睏境髮生和傳遞過程中供應鏈協作參數的影響。
단개기업재무곤경적형성궤제이유대량연구,공응련배경하적재무곤경형성궤제적연구목전환교소。공응련성원기업간인운작적밀절련계화이익적상관성,일개성원기업적재무상황불부취결우기본신적운영,환취결우기상하유기업적운영화재무상태。본문연구간단결구하성원기업간적협작방식대기재무곤경형성급전체적영향。대우유공응상、생산상、분소상화령수상조성적사계단공응련,본문응용다지능체방진래분석재(s,S)고존책략화VMI협작방식하공응련성원기업재무상태적변동규률。연구발현:공응련성원기업재(s,S)책략방식하비재VMI협작방식하경역발생재무곤경。재(s,S)책략방식하,공응련성원기업적재무곤경구유쌍향전체적특성;이재VMI협작방식하,재무곤경궤호불구유전체성。논문환통과삼수령민도분석연구료재무곤경발생화전체과정중공응련협작삼수적영향。
Financial distress has been extensively investigated without considering the interaction with other enterprises. In the supply chain environment, this kind of research is rare. Because of the close interrelation on operations and bene- fit relevance among the member enterprises of a supply chain, the financial status of a member enterprise depends not only on its own operations, but also on its upstream and downstream enterprise' s operation and financial conditions. In this paper, the formation and propagation of financial distress along a supply chain under different collaboration mecha- nism is investigated. With the application of a multi-agent simulation technology, changes of the financial states of mem- ber enterprises under the (s,S) inventory strategy and VMI are analyzed for a four-stage supply chain, which is com- posed of one supplier, manufacturer, distributor and retailer. Research results show that member enterprises under (s,S) strategy are more inclined to have financial distress than under VM1. Under (s,S) strategy, the financial distress of member enterprises can propagate upward or downward along the supply chain. While this financial distress propaga- tion rarely occurs under VMI. Sensitivity analyses on supply chain parameters further illustrate the impact of collabora- tion mechanism on the financial distress of the supply chain.