财经研究
財經研究
재경연구
The Study of Finance and Economics
2013年
2期
26~36
,共null页
地方融资平台 信用风险 压力测试
地方融資平檯 信用風險 壓力測試
지방융자평태 신용풍험 압력측시
local financing platform; credit risk; stress test
文章给出了资产价值跳跃情景下地方融资平台的违约风险要素及其信用风险的测度公式,并基于我国各级地方政府及其所属国有企业控制的上市公司资产负债状况和资产波动性特征,对各级融资平台的信用风险进行了设定情景下的近似压力测试。研究表明:(1)若不在地方融资平台的资产价值中嵌入跳跃过程,则可能严重低估了地方融资平台风险对银行业的负面冲击;(2)对地方融资平台的信用风险与其市场压力情景之间的映射关系的测试表明,当地方融资平台资产价值的跃降幅度超过30%时,在7.66万亿元的地方融资平台债务中约有2万亿元处于违约风险状态,这是“问题”融资平台货款普遍违约的理论边界。
文章給齣瞭資產價值跳躍情景下地方融資平檯的違約風險要素及其信用風險的測度公式,併基于我國各級地方政府及其所屬國有企業控製的上市公司資產負債狀況和資產波動性特徵,對各級融資平檯的信用風險進行瞭設定情景下的近似壓力測試。研究錶明:(1)若不在地方融資平檯的資產價值中嵌入跳躍過程,則可能嚴重低估瞭地方融資平檯風險對銀行業的負麵遲擊;(2)對地方融資平檯的信用風險與其市場壓力情景之間的映射關繫的測試錶明,噹地方融資平檯資產價值的躍降幅度超過30%時,在7.66萬億元的地方融資平檯債務中約有2萬億元處于違約風險狀態,這是“問題”融資平檯貨款普遍違約的理論邊界。
문장급출료자산개치도약정경하지방융자평태적위약풍험요소급기신용풍험적측도공식,병기우아국각급지방정부급기소속국유기업공제적상시공사자산부채상황화자산파동성특정,대각급융자평태적신용풍험진행료설정정경하적근사압력측시。연구표명:(1)약불재지방융자평태적자산개치중감입도약과정,칙가능엄중저고료지방융자평태풍험대은행업적부면충격;(2)대지방융자평태적신용풍험여기시장압력정경지간적영사관계적측시표명,당지방융자평태자산개치적약강폭도초과30%시,재7.66만억원적지방융자평태채무중약유2만억원처우위약풍험상태,저시“문제”융자평태화관보편위약적이론변계。
This paper puts forward the formulas for measuring the de- fault risk factors of local financing platforms and relevant credit risk under the jumps in asset values. Based on the asset-liability situation and asset vol- atility characteristics of listed companies controlled by local governments at all levels and their affiliated state-owned companies, this paper makes the approximate stress test for credit risk for local financing platforms. It rea- ches the following conclusions: firstly, it may seriously underestimate the negative effects of credit risk for local financing platforms on banking if ig- noring the jumps in asset values; secondly, the test for the mapping rela- tionship between credit risk for local financing platforms and relevant market stress scenarios shows that if the decrease in asset values of local financing platforms exceeds 30%, about 2 trillion yuan of local financing platforms debt will be in a default state, which is the theoretical limit for general de- fault of troubled financing platforms debt.