史学集刊
史學集刊
사학집간
Collected Papers of History Studies
2013年
1期
3~25
,共null页
蔡元培 袁世凯 南京临时政府 北京兵变 袁克定 曹锟
蔡元培 袁世凱 南京臨時政府 北京兵變 袁剋定 曹錕
채원배 원세개 남경림시정부 북경병변 원극정 조곤
Cai Yuanpei （蔡元培） ; Yuan Shikai; Nanjing Provisional Government; Beijing Mutiny; Yuan Keding （袁克定）; Cao Kun （曹锟）
百年来，袁世凯一直被很多人视为民元“北京兵变”的主谋，然而却没有一条可信的材料可以证明这一点，被研究者广泛征引的刘成禺《民元北京兵变内幕》其实是一条假材料。而透过其他许多可靠材料，可以看出，南方在永久首都和临时政府地点问题上做出了重大妥协，因此袁为“争都”而策划兵变没有紧迫性和必要性。同时亦可看出，袁对南下就职的态度，有一个变化过程。起初因有后顾之忧不愿立刻南下，而后随着局势变化，逐步变为积极行动，只不过由于袁克定等突然发动兵变而中止。至于袁克定等之所以要发动兵变，阻袁南下，是因为他们担心自己的前途和既得利益会因袁南下就职而受到损害，而不能像袁那样从南北统一的全局和高度来考虑问题。从最终结果来看，袁世凯固然是兵变受益者，但因兵变失去控制，由“政治性”兵变演变为“真性”兵变，并蔓延到其他一些地方，导致袁在国人及外交团心目中的威望遭受重创，从而对南北合一后新政府的建立和运行造成一定影响。
百年來，袁世凱一直被很多人視為民元“北京兵變”的主謀，然而卻沒有一條可信的材料可以證明這一點，被研究者廣汎徵引的劉成禺《民元北京兵變內幕》其實是一條假材料。而透過其他許多可靠材料，可以看齣，南方在永久首都和臨時政府地點問題上做齣瞭重大妥協，因此袁為“爭都”而策劃兵變沒有緊迫性和必要性。同時亦可看齣，袁對南下就職的態度，有一箇變化過程。起初因有後顧之憂不願立刻南下，而後隨著跼勢變化，逐步變為積極行動，隻不過由于袁剋定等突然髮動兵變而中止。至于袁剋定等之所以要髮動兵變，阻袁南下，是因為他們擔心自己的前途和既得利益會因袁南下就職而受到損害，而不能像袁那樣從南北統一的全跼和高度來攷慮問題。從最終結果來看，袁世凱固然是兵變受益者，但因兵變失去控製，由“政治性”兵變縯變為“真性”兵變，併蔓延到其他一些地方，導緻袁在國人及外交糰心目中的威望遭受重創，從而對南北閤一後新政府的建立和運行造成一定影響。
백년래，원세개일직피흔다인시위민원“북경병변”적주모，연이각몰유일조가신적재료가이증명저일점，피연구자엄범정인적류성우《민원북경병변내막》기실시일조가재료。이투과기타허다가고재료，가이간출，남방재영구수도화림시정부지점문제상주출료중대타협，인차원위“쟁도”이책화병변몰유긴박성화필요성。동시역가간출，원대남하취직적태도，유일개변화과정。기초인유후고지우불원립각남하，이후수착국세변화，축보변위적겁행동，지불과유우원극정등돌연발동병변이중지。지우원극정등지소이요발동병변，조원남하，시인위타문담심자기적전도화기득이익회인원남하취직이수도손해，이불능상원나양종남북통일적전국화고도래고필문제。종최종결과래간，원세개고연시병변수익자，단인병변실거공제，유“정치성”병변연변위“진성”병변，병만연도기타일사지방，도치원재국인급외교단심목중적위망조수중창，종이대남북합일후신정부적건립화운행조성일정영향。
For a century, Yuan Shikai has been deemed the chief plotter of ＂Beijing Mutiny＂ in the first year of the Republic of China, but there was no reliable proof about that. The ＂Inside Story of Beijing Mutiny in the First Year of the Republic of China＂ by Liu Chengyu （ 刘成禺）, which was widely quoted as proof by many researchers, was in fact false materials. On the contrary, through many other reliable documents, it can be found out that the South had accepted great compromise on the issue of sites of permanent capital and provisional government, so there was no urgency or necessity for Yuan Shikai to plan a mutiny for ＂contending for the site of the capital＂. Meanwhile, it could be seen that Yuan Shikai changed his attitude toward getting inaugurated in the South. Primarily, he was not willing to go southward due to fear of attacks from behind; later, he became active about that with the situation changing, but was interrupted by the sudden mutiny started by Yuan Keding （袁克定） and others who worried about their future and vested interest would be impaired Yuan＇s inauguration in the South. It＇s no doubt that Yuan Shikai benefited from the mutiny, however, as the mutiny became out of control and turned from a ＂political＂ mutiny into an authentic one, spreading to some other regions, his prestige among Chinese people and diplomatic corps was heavily damaged the establishment and operation of a new government after unification of the South and the , and thus affected Noah.
