CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用具有资本流动的扩展随机动态均衡模型，分别在资本流动、国内利率、国内产出波动、外国利率、外国价格波动的条件下，通过数值分析，探讨了货币财政政策及其所伴随的风险对增长率、产出波动率、通胀率、汇率、货币需求、货币替代的政策效果．研究结果表明，货币财政政策的有效性随着资本流动、国内利率、外国利率、外国价格波动而变化．对于较低的国内利率，资本流动性显著影响货币财政政策对增长率、产出波动、通胀率和汇率的作用效果．对于较高的国内利率，资本流动性不影响货币财政政策对增长率和产出波动的作用效果．低产出波动国家中资本流动对货币财政政策作用效果的影响与高产出波动国家的相同．
본문이용구유자본류동적확전수궤동태균형모형，분별재자본류동、국내리솔、국내산출파동、외국리솔、외국개격파동적조건하，통과수치분석，탐토료화폐재정정책급기소반수적풍험대증장솔、산출파동솔、통창솔、회솔、화폐수구、화폐체대적정책효과．연구결과표명，화폐재정정책적유효성수착자본류동、국내리솔、외국리솔、외국개격파동이변화．대우교저적국내리솔，자본류동성현저영향화폐재정정책대증장솔、산출파동、통창솔화회솔적작용효과．대우교고적국내리솔，자본류동성불영향화폐재정정책대증장솔화산출파동적작용효과．저산출파동국가중자본류동대화폐재정정책작용효과적영향여고산출파동국가적상동．
This paper numerically analyzed the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, and their associated risks, on growth rate, product volatility, inflation rate, exchange rate, monetary demand and monetary substitution under capital mobility, domestic interest rate, product volatility, foreign interest rate and foreign pricing volatility respectively by using an extended equilibrium in a stochastic dynamic optimal model with capital flows. The research results show that the effective of the monetary policy and fiscal policy change with capital flows, domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate and foreign pricing volatility. Monetary and fiscal policies have significant effects on growth rate, product volatility, inflation rate and exchange rate for lower interest rate, but have no effects on growth rate and product volatility for higher interest rate. The impacts of capital flows on the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a country with lower product volatility are the same as those in a country with higher product volatility.