CAJ | 학술논문

运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析中国省域碳排放的空间效应及驱动因素的结果显示，中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性和集群趋势，并主要集中在经济发达、人口密集和能源消费强度大的地区；能源消费强度、人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放总量影响显著，其中能源消费的影响最大；城市化、产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的影响不显著。该研究结论为我国城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量、国家和地方政府建立相应的碳减排鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制，以及各省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式具有决策参考意义。
운용공간계량경제학모형실증분석중국성역탄배방적공간효응급구동인소적결과현시，중국성역탄배방존재현저적공간자상관성화집군추세，병주요집중재경제발체、인구밀집화능원소비강도대적지구；능원소비강도、인구규모화인균GDP대탄배방총량영향현저，기중능원소비적영향최대；성시화、산업결구화기술창신대탄배방적영향불현저。해연구결론위아국성시화화산업결구승급진정중공제탄배방증량、국가화지방정부건립상응적탄감배고려정책화기술연발지지궤제，이급각성역구건각구구역특색적저탄경제발전모식구유결책삼고의의。
This paper analyses the spatial effects and driving factors of Chinese provincial carbon emissions by using spatial economic models. The results show that there is significant spatial correlation and obvious cluster trend in China＇s provincial carbon emissions and mainly concentrating on the areas with developed economy, intensive population and high energy consumption intensity. The consumption of energy intensity, population scales and per capita GDP influence the carbon emissions significantly, and the influence of energy consumption intensity is the biggest factor. While, urbanization, industrial structure and technology innovation do not have notable effect on carbon emissions. Such conclusions have relevant decision-making reference significance for controlling carbon emissions increment in the process of urbanization and for upgrading of the industrial structure, as well as for the state and the local governments setting up corresponding encouraging policies and technology research and development support mechanism, and for provinces to construct low carbon economy development models with the regional characteristics.