CAJ | 학술논문

生命周期一持久收入（LC—PIH）模型以及Hall通过修订LC—PIH而提出的随机游走假说等理论都难以很好地解释中国农村居民的消费行为。利用坎贝尔和曼昆过度敏感性假说，在分析我国农村居民消费行为特点的基础上，构造模型并验证了农村居民消费的过度敏感性；然后提出了我国农村居民的消费行为与其谨慎度关系的“U”型曲线假说，在一定的时限范围内，当农村居民消费谨慎度由小变大时，他们的消费水平先是迅速下降，到一定程度后逐渐上升。来自华北、长江中下游地区、重庆、浙江地区以及山西部分农村地区的实际调研资料验证了此假说。
생명주기일지구수입（LC—PIH）모형이급Hall통과수정LC—PIH이제출적수궤유주가설등이론도난이흔호지해석중국농촌거민적소비행위。이용감패이화만곤과도민감성가설，재분석아국농촌거민소비행위특점적기출상，구조모형병험증료농촌거민소비적과도민감성；연후제출료아국농촌거민적소비행위여기근신도관계적“U”형곡선가설，재일정적시한범위내，당농촌거민소비근신도유소변대시，타문적소비수평선시신속하강，도일정정도후축점상승。래자화북、장강중하유지구、중경、절강지구이급산서부분농촌지구적실제조연자료험증료차가설。
Life cycle - permanent income （LC -PIH） model and random -walking hypothesis proposed by Hall by amending LC - PIH are difficult to explain the consumer behavior of Chinese rural residents. The essay constructs a model and verify that the excessive sensitivity of consumption of rural residents by Campbell and Mankiw＇ s excessive sensitivity hypothesis on the basis of the analysis of rural residents＇consumption behavior characteristics. Then it presents the ＂U＂ - shaped curve hypothesis of the relation between the Chinese rural consumer behavior and its prudent degree. The rural residents＇ consumption level first decreases rapidly and then gradually increases to a certain extent when the consumption prudent degree of rural residents grows bigger within a certain range of time limits. The experiences in the actual research verify this hypothesis from the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Basin, mountains of Chongqing, the hilly areas in Zhejiang, as well as part of the rural areas of Shanxi.