CAJ | 학술논문

本文在拉姆齐一卡斯一库普曼斯框架下构建了保险业发展影响经济增长的理论模型。模型显示，保险业发展与经济增长之间存在门槛效应和多重均衡现象，在保险业发达的情形下，经济增长和保险业发展相互促进；在保险业不发达的情形下，经济增长存在低水平陷阱。本文以寿险业为例，运用中国各省份1999～2010年的面板数据进行分析。门槛回归估计结果显示，寿险业发展可以促进经济增长；随着人均GDP和保险密度进入更高的区制，寿险业发展对经济增长的促进作用显著提高；当相对寿险深度跨越更高的门槛值后，寿险业促进经济增长的程度降低。
본문재랍모제일잡사일고보만사광가하구건료보험업발전영향경제증장적이론모형。모형현시，보험업발전여경제증장지간존재문함효응화다중균형현상，재보험업발체적정형하，경제증장화보험업발전상호촉진；재보험업불발체적정형하，경제증장존재저수평함정。본문이수험업위례，운용중국각성빈1999～2010년적면판수거진행분석。문함회귀고계결과현시，수험업발전가이촉진경제증장；수착인균GDP화보험밀도진입경고적구제，수험업발전대경제증장적촉진작용현저제고；당상대수험심도과월경고적문함치후，수험업촉진경제증장적정도강저。
This paper builds up a model to establish the causal link between insur- ance industry development and economic growth in the framework of Ramsey-Cass- Koopmans economic growth model. In the case of developed insurance industry, eco- nomic growth and insurance industry development can promote each other. In the case of developing insurance industry, there is a low level equilibrium trap in economic growth. The model also shows there is threshold effect and multiple equilibrium in the relation of insurance and economic growth. Furthermore, by using the panel data for 30 Chinese provinces during 1999-2010 with threshold panel data model, the results show that life insurance industry development can promote economic growth; the pro- moting effect of life insurance will increase with GDP per capita and insurance density reach the higher threshold; the promoting effect of life insurance will reduce with rela- tive insurance penetration reach the higher threshold.