CAJ | 학술논문

旅游业的增长能引起通货膨胀吗？文章检验了海南岛的旅游业与通货膨胀之间的关系。协整检验表明,海南岛的旅游业与通货膨胀之间有长期的均衡关系,格兰杰因果关系检验也支持海南旅游业在单方向上会引起通货膨胀,脉冲响应函数的实证结果也清楚地表明海南旅游业的增长对通货膨胀能产生一个正向的推动。最后,文章认为海南旅游与房地产的捆绑式发展及第二居所的短期居民激增是旅游业推动CPI增长的主要原因。
여유업적증장능인기통화팽창마？문장검험료해남도적여유업여통화팽창지간적관계。협정검험표명,해남도적여유업여통화팽창지간유장기적균형관계,격란걸인과관계검험야지지해남여유업재단방향상회인기통화팽창,맥충향응함수적실증결과야청초지표명해남여유업적증장대통화팽창능산생일개정향적추동。최후,문장인위해남여유여방지산적곤방식발전급제이거소적단기거민격증시여유업추동CPI증장적주요원인。
Will tourism development bring about inflation？ The paper examines the causal relationship between tourism industry and inflation in Hainan Island.The cointegration test indicates that there is a long-term relationship of equilibrium between tourism industry and inflation in Hainan Island.A Granger causality also supports that tourism industry in Hainan will bring about inflation in one direction.In addition,the empirical evidence of impulse response function clearly shows that tourism growth in Hainan can produce a positive push to inflation.In the end,the paper holds the view that the main reason of pushing CPI growth is the tied development of tourism and real estate and the surge in short-term residents with their second homes in Hainan Island.