CAJ | 학술논문

测算了1995—2010年江苏省的碳排放量，运用协整检验、建立误差修正模型和进行Granger因果关系分析，对江苏省碳排放量与外贸出口总额的长期均衡关系和短期动态变化进行了分析。结果显示：1995-2010年江苏省的碳排放量增长迅速，但呈明显的波动趋势；江苏省的碳排放量与外贸出口总额存在长期协整关系，其长期弹性为0．229；短期内，前期的非均衡误差以19．04％的比例对当期碳排放量做出修正，以保证碳排放量与外贸出口总额存在长期均衡关系；外贸出口总额是碳排放量的Granger原因，而碳排放量的增加不能解释外贸出口总额的增长。最后提出，加快外贸出口结构调整，减少高能耗、高碳产品出口，是江苏省减少碳排放的重要环节。
측산료1995—2010년강소성적탄배방량，운용협정검험、건립오차수정모형화진행Granger인과관계분석，대강소성탄배방량여외무출구총액적장기균형관계화단기동태변화진행료분석。결과현시：1995-2010년강소성적탄배방량증장신속，단정명현적파동추세；강소성적탄배방량여외무출구총액존재장기협정관계，기장기탄성위0．229；단기내，전기적비균형오차이19．04％적비례대당기탄배방량주출수정，이보증탄배방량여외무출구총액존재장기균형관계；외무출구총액시탄배방량적Granger원인，이탄배방량적증가불능해석외무출구총액적증장。최후제출，가쾌외무출구결구조정，감소고능모、고탄산품출구，시강소성감소탄배방적중요배절。
This paper calculates the carbon emission of Jiangsu province during 1995-2010. And it empirically studies the long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emission and export of Jiangsu and the short term dynamic change of them through the co-integration test, the error correction model and the Granger causality test. The result shows as follows：the carbon emission of Jiangsu province has been rapidly rising with the fluctuation during 1995-2010;there is a long-term co-integration relationship between Jiangsu＇s carbon emission and export, and its long-term elasticity is 0. 229 ;in short term, there exists an early non-equilibrium error ratio of 19.04 percent making an amendmen for current carbon emis- sion to ensure the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between them; export is the Granger cause of carbon emission, but the increasing of carbon emission could not explain the increasing of export. Finally,it proposes that adjusting export trade structure and reducing the export of products with high energy consumption and high carbon are the important links to reduce carbon emission of Jiangsu province.