CAJ | 학술논문

构建了一个政府规模传导和作用于社会生产效率的理论机制模型，并基于中国1997—2010年30个省区的面板数据，实证检验了政府支出规模在增进社会生产效率中的实际效应，并对其最优膨胀速度进行测度。研究结果表明：在市场均衡和最优化条件下，政府规模的增长将能够正向地促进社会生产的效率改进；中国政府规模的膨胀由于超过了其最优增长速度，而一定程度上抑制了社会生产的效率改进；在增进社会生产效率目标下，政府支出规模占GDP比重在年份间保持一种大致稳定规模是最优和有效的。文章政策含义在于，政府规模增长应保持在一个合理、渐进的路径上，盲目、非渐进的政府规模膨胀势必导致生产效率损失。分税制改革以来，中国政府收支规模增长速度大幅高于经济增长速度，其可持续性以及由此产生的经济社会影响，需要引起社会关注和反思。
구건료일개정부규모전도화작용우사회생산효솔적이론궤제모형，병기우중국1997—2010년30개성구적면판수거，실증검험료정부지출규모재증진사회생산효솔중적실제효응，병대기최우팽창속도진행측도。연구결과표명：재시장균형화최우화조건하，정부규모적증장장능구정향지촉진사회생산적효솔개진；중국정부규모적팽창유우초과료기최우증장속도，이일정정도상억제료사회생산적효솔개진；재증진사회생산효솔목표하，정부지출규모점GDP비중재년빈간보지일충대치은정규모시최우화유효적。문장정책함의재우，정부규모증장응보지재일개합리、점진적로경상，맹목、비점진적정부규모팽창세필도치생산효솔손실。분세제개혁이래，중국정부수지규모증장속도대폭고우경제증장속도，기가지속성이급유차산생적경제사회영향，수요인기사회관주화반사。
This paper constructs the theoretical mechanism of government scale on the production efficiency,then it makes the empirical analysis on dynamic effects of fiscal scale on production efficiency and its optimal size based on Chinese provincial data from 1997 to 2010. The result shows that： under the conditions of market equilibrium and optimization, the scale expansion of government will be able to pro-mote the improvement of production efficiency; since the expansion of government spending over the op-timal one,it hinders the production efficiency improvements,it also doesn＇t play a positive role in China; it＇s optimal and effective that the share of government spending in GDP maintains broadly stable scale between years for promoting efficiency improvements. The policy implication is that the growth of gov- ernment size should be kept in a progressive procedure, and a blind growth will bring a loss to the produc-tion efficiency. Since the tax system reform in China,the relative scale of fiscal expenditure sharply increased,its sustainability and the economic and social impact should draw attention from the the whoel society.