CAJ | 학술논문

基于GTAP模型，设计了相应的模拟方案，事后模拟评估了不入世对中国农业发展带来的影响。结果显示：如果中国当初未加入WTO，中国的国民经济发展水平和福利水平将显著下降，而对世界其他地区的国民经济发展水平和福利水平影响很小；中国大多数农产品的生产、消费和价格都会下降；在分类农产品贸易上，奶类、油料和油脂这些中国具有比较劣势的农产品进口量将大幅度减少，而蔬菜水果和水产品这些中国具有较强国际竞争力的农产品出口量将明显萎缩。
기우GTAP모형，설계료상응적모의방안，사후모의평고료불입세대중국농업발전대래적영향。결과현시：여과중국당초미가입WTO，중국적국민경제발전수평화복이수평장현저하강，이대세계기타지구적국민경제발전수평화복이수평영향흔소；중국대다수농산품적생산、소비화개격도회하강；재분류농산품무역상，내류、유료화유지저사중국구유비교열세적농산품진구량장대폭도감소，이소채수과화수산품저사중국구유교강국제경쟁력적농산품출구량장명현위축。
Based on Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model, this paper makes a study of coun- terfactual simulation of impact of China＇s accession to the WTO on agricultural development. If China had not chosen to join the WTO, the empirical simulation shows that： The level of China＇s national economic development, import, export trade and welfare will be significantly decreased, but the influence is very small to the rest of the world; The majority of domestic agricultural production, consumption and price will decline, and it will affect the agricultural planting structure; In the categories of agricultural trade, the im- port of milk and oil which China has a comparative disadvantage will decrease obviously, while the export of fruits, vegetables and aquatic products which China has a strong international competitiveness will sub- stantially reduced.