北京理工大学学报：社会科学版
北京理工大學學報：社會科學版
북경리공대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology（Social Sciences Edition)
2013年
1期
40~45
,共null页
能源消费 收敛性 OECD国家 金砖国家
能源消費 收斂性 OECD國傢 金磚國傢
능원소비 수렴성 OECD국가 금전국가
energy consumption; convergence ; OECD countries ; BRICS
选择经合组织（OECD）27国（发达国家）与金砖5国（新兴快速发展中国家）为样本,运用Phillips＆Sul提出的判断收敛性的方法,考察其人均能源消费的收敛性。实证研究发现：总体32国的人均能源消费不具有收敛性;在OECD 27国中,剔除冰岛后的26个发达国家的人均能源消费具备收敛特征;金砖5国人均能源消费也具有收敛性,但收敛速度缓慢,明显慢于上述26个发达国家。收敛性的分析结果表明：发达国家和发展中国家之间人均能耗演变呈现分异特征,而发达国家彼此之间以及发展中国家相互之间节能政策合作的潜力较大,人均能耗具有相似的演变特征。这意味着,在全球能源约束尤其是全球气候变化约束下,发达国家与发展中国家在节能政策达成一致的难度较大,相对而言,发达国家、发展中国家两大阵容各自内部在节能政策选择方面形成共识的可能性较大。
選擇經閤組織（OECD）27國（髮達國傢）與金磚5國（新興快速髮展中國傢）為樣本,運用Phillips＆Sul提齣的判斷收斂性的方法,攷察其人均能源消費的收斂性。實證研究髮現：總體32國的人均能源消費不具有收斂性;在OECD 27國中,剔除冰島後的26箇髮達國傢的人均能源消費具備收斂特徵;金磚5國人均能源消費也具有收斂性,但收斂速度緩慢,明顯慢于上述26箇髮達國傢。收斂性的分析結果錶明：髮達國傢和髮展中國傢之間人均能耗縯變呈現分異特徵,而髮達國傢彼此之間以及髮展中國傢相互之間節能政策閤作的潛力較大,人均能耗具有相似的縯變特徵。這意味著,在全毬能源約束尤其是全毬氣候變化約束下,髮達國傢與髮展中國傢在節能政策達成一緻的難度較大,相對而言,髮達國傢、髮展中國傢兩大陣容各自內部在節能政策選擇方麵形成共識的可能性較大。
선택경합조직（OECD）27국（발체국가）여금전5국（신흥쾌속발전중국가）위양본,운용Phillips＆Sul제출적판단수렴성적방법,고찰기인균능원소비적수렴성。실증연구발현：총체32국적인균능원소비불구유수렴성;재OECD 27국중,척제빙도후적26개발체국가적인균능원소비구비수렴특정;금전5국인균능원소비야구유수렴성,단수렴속도완만,명현만우상술26개발체국가。수렴성적분석결과표명：발체국가화발전중국가지간인균능모연변정현분이특정,이발체국가피차지간이급발전중국가상호지간절능정책합작적잠력교대,인균능모구유상사적연변특정。저의미착,재전구능원약속우기시전구기후변화약속하,발체국가여발전중국가재절능정책체성일치적난도교대,상대이언,발체국가、발전중국가량대진용각자내부재절능정책선택방면형성공식적가능성교대。
By adopting 27 countries of OECD （developed countries）and 5 countries of BRICS （rapidly developing countries）as the sample,this study applied the method put forward by Phillips ＆ Sul （2007）in analyzing the convergence of per capita energy consumption. The result of empirical research shows that the convergence is nonexistent overall. With the exception of Iceland ,the energy consumption per capita of the other 26 developed countries converges,while another energy consumption per capita of 5 developing countries of converges with a slow speed,which is obviously slower than that of developed countries. The analysis of convergence shows that the evolution of per capita energy consumption between developed and developing countries evinces the characteristics of differentiation,while the evolution of per capita consumption among developed countries as well as developing countries is similar,which indicates great potential for energy-saving policy cooperation between developed and developing countries. This means that with the constraints of global energy and global climate change, the developed and developing countries have lots of difficulties in reaching agreement in energy-saving policy,while in constrast, the consensus of energy-saving policy among developed countries or developing countries will be more easily achieved.
