CAJ | 학술논문

交通系统是典型的不确定性系统,不确定性条件下的出行行为呈现有限理性的特征。前景理论是一个有限理性决策理论,更加符合现实中出行者的实际行为特征。为了更好地运用前景理论进行出行行为分析和建模,对前景理论在出行行为研究中的适用性进行了探讨。研究认为：对于具体的出行行为研究而言,前景理论是否适用不仅取决于决策问题的性质,而且还要看出行者的个性特征,以及所考虑的选择方案属性是否具有不确定性。此外,在开展一项具体研究之前不应框定于某一特定理论,而应根据不同理论的特点和适用范围,并结合所要研究的内容进行综合权衡,最终选取更为合适的理论。
교통계통시전형적불학정성계통,불학정성조건하적출행행위정현유한이성적특정。전경이론시일개유한이성결책이론,경가부합현실중출행자적실제행위특정。위료경호지운용전경이론진행출행행위분석화건모,대전경이론재출행행위연구중적괄용성진행료탐토。연구인위：대우구체적출행행위연구이언,전경이론시부괄용불부취결우결책문제적성질,이차환요간출행자적개성특정,이급소고필적선택방안속성시부구유불학정성。차외,재개전일항구체연구지전불응광정우모일특정이론,이응근거불동이론적특점화괄용범위,병결합소요연구적내용진행종합권형,최종선취경위합괄적이론。
Traffic system is typical for its uncertainty under which travelers＇ behaviors appear to be bounded rational. Prospect Theory was proposed to deal with bounded rational decision problems and conforms more to travelers＇ actual behaviors. In order to better apply Prospect Theory to travel behavior research and modeling, this paper intends to investigate the applicability of Prospect Theory in travel behavior research. It is concluded that whether Prospect Theory is applicable to travel behavior research or not depends not only on features of certain decision problems, but also on travelers＇ characteristics as well as whether an alternative is uncertain or not. In addition, when conducting a research we should consider and weigh comprehensively among different theories according to their properties and application scope, other than be restricted to certain kind of theory.