科技和产业
科技和產業
과기화산업
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL
2013年
2期
1~6
,共null页
碳泄漏 碳密集产品进出口 关系检验
碳洩漏 碳密集產品進齣口 關繫檢驗
탄설루 탄밀집산품진출구 관계검험
carbon leakage;import and export of carbon intensive industry products;relations test
分析了碳泄漏发生一传导一影响机制，运用ADF平稳性检验、Johansen协整检验、多元回归分析等方法，检验了碳密集产业相关产品的进出口额与碳泄漏的相互影响关系。研究表明，碳泄漏与碳密集产业相关产品的进出口额存在长期协整关系，矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料进口对碳泄漏具有替代作用，非食用原料进口、橡胶矿冶产品出口与碳泄漏存在正向的回归关系，化学品及有关产品出口额与碳泄漏呈现负向的回归关系。
分析瞭碳洩漏髮生一傳導一影響機製，運用ADF平穩性檢驗、Johansen協整檢驗、多元迴歸分析等方法，檢驗瞭碳密集產業相關產品的進齣口額與碳洩漏的相互影響關繫。研究錶明，碳洩漏與碳密集產業相關產品的進齣口額存在長期協整關繫，礦物燃料、潤滑油及有關原料進口對碳洩漏具有替代作用，非食用原料進口、橡膠礦冶產品齣口與碳洩漏存在正嚮的迴歸關繫，化學品及有關產品齣口額與碳洩漏呈現負嚮的迴歸關繫。
분석료탄설루발생일전도일영향궤제，운용ADF평은성검험、Johansen협정검험、다원회귀분석등방법，검험료탄밀집산업상관산품적진출구액여탄설루적상호영향관계。연구표명，탄설루여탄밀집산업상관산품적진출구액존재장기협정관계，광물연료、윤활유급유관원료진구대탄설루구유체대작용，비식용원료진구、상효광야산품출구여탄설루존재정향적회귀관계，화학품급유관산품출구액여탄설루정현부향적회귀관계。
The mechanism of occurrence-conduction-influence of Carbon Leakage is analyzed. The interrelation between Carbon Leakage and im- port and export sales of carbon intensive industry products is tested with the methods of ADF test, Johansen Cointegration test and Multiple Re- gression Analysis. The results shows that Carbon Leakage and import and export sales of carbon intensive industry products have long-term cointe- gration relations. The import of mineral fuel, lubricating oil and related materials has substitution effect on Carbon Leakage. The import of non- food raw materials has positive regression relations with Carbon Leakage. The export of rubber products and mining and metallurgy products has positive regression relations with Carbon Leakage. The export of Chemicals and related products has negative regression relations with Carbon Leakage.
